The Silmari

A daily data newsletter on the Korean stock market — silmari, ‘a clue: the loose end that unravels the knot’

⑤ After-Hours 18:002026.08.14 Fri · No. 12Neutral — composite sentiment score 0.689; 20-day volatility 5.88% (93rd expanding percentile), leverage ETF share 9.95% (73rd percentile); crash-precursor score 3/signals. The judgment is each reader’s own.

⑤ After-Hours · published 18:00 KST · after the regular session · Note: flow figures are preliminary as published just after the close; the exchange’s confirmed figures appear in that day’s Final Edition (20:00 KST).

① Pre-Open07:30 ② Early Session10:00 ③ Midday12:00 ④ Closing16:00 ⑤ After-Hours18:00 ⑥ Final20:00

01 · Verdict★Preliminary — source correction in progress (FDR 6967.62 / Naver 6977.94)

verdict at evening

KOSPI Closes +2.26% at 6,967 — Foreigners Buy ₩3.04tn, NXTNextrade (NXT) Alternative ExchangeSouth Korea’s first alternative trading system, launched in 2026, operating pre-market, main-session, and after-market sessions alongside the KRX main board.NXT data extends the observable trading day beyond KRX hours; after-market NXT turnover and breadth can signal how participants are repositioning ahead of the next session. After-Market Holds Gains

The KOSPI closed Friday, August 14 (2026) at 6,967.62, up 2.26% on the day, as foreign investors posted provisional net purchases of ₩3.04tn on the main board — their fifth consecutive session of net buying on a weekly basis, lifting the one-week KOSPI foreign net total to ₩6.55tn.The KOSDAQ added 0.41% to close at 864.91, with retail investors providing the primary support at a provisional net ₩315.1bn; NXT after-market data (20-minute delayed snapshot as of 17:24, KST) showed 383 advancers against 207 decliners across 608 listed names, with aggregate NXT turnover of ₩18.29tn — these are NXT-only figures, not KRX main-board data, and are not yet final.

Key points

01KOSPI closed at 6,967.62 (+2.26%); intraday range was 162.43 points (2.37%), from a low of 6,848.43 at 10:34 to a high of 7,010.86 at 09:02 — both extremes hit in the morning session.

02Provisional foreign net buying on KOSPI reached ₩3.04tn; brokerages sold a net₩1.06tn and retail investors sold a net ₩1.98tn. These are pre-final figures collected at 17:52 KST — final figures are typically confirmed after 18:00.

03Autos led sector gains at +6.14% (Hyundai Motor +8.24%, Hyundai Mobis +7.05%); defense/aerospace lagged at −2.64%. SK Telecom surged +10.32% — the day’s standout mover among KOSPI’s top-ten by turnover.

04The crash-precursor score stands at 3 out of a possible maximum (signal breakdown: ADRAdvance-Decline Ratio (ADR)The ratio of advancing issues to declining issues in a given market on a given day; above 1.0 means more stocks rose than fell.ADR is a breadth measure that shows whether a headline index move is broad-based or driven by a narrow set of large-caps — it feeds directly into the crash-precursor score. 2, short-surge 1, sell-acceleration 0, sentiment-90+ 0); the sentiment gauge is rated Neutral (composite score 0.689), with 20-day realized volatility at 5.88% and leverage ETF share at 9.95% — both confirmed for today; credit and margin data carry Thursday’s figures (T+1 lag).

02 · NXTNXT intraday — 20-minute delay · as of 17:24 KST

Evening disclosures —Short sellingShort sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance

A window on whether the regular session’s move carried into the evening alternative venue

NXT After-Market: 383 Advancers vs. 207 Decliners, ₩18.29tn Combined Turnover (20-Min Delay, 17:24 KST Snapshot)

As of the 20-minute-delayed NXT snapshot timestamped 17:24 KST — covering NXT (Nextrade alternative exchange) only, not the KRX main board — 383 names were advancing against 207 declining across 608 listed issues, with aggregate NXT turnover of ₩18.29tn; these are not final figures, which will be confirmed in the evening NXT market summary.Top NXT movers by turnover in the snapshot were Samsung Electronics (+2.24%, ₩4.16tn), SK hynix (+3.70%, ₩4.09tn), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (+3.99%, ₩1.65tn), Hyundai Motor (+8.36%, ₩478.4bn), and SK Square (+3.49%, ₩410.4bn); the breadth and direction are broadly consistent with the KRX close.

03 · GapOpening GapThe difference between a security’s or index’s opening price and the prior session’s closing price, reflecting news or overnight flows that occur while the market is closed.Friday closes into a two-day gap window; any material move in U.S. or Japanese markets over the weekend will be reflected in Monday’s opening gap, creating asymmetric risk for after-market positions. risksRisk → same condition in the past → outcome distribution

Tomorrow morninggap risks 4names

A window naming in advance what could shake tomorrow’s opening price

U.S. Futures Signal Continued Strength Overnight, but Friday’s Gap-Open History in 2026 Runs Both Ways

ADR

Warning score total: 3

signal 2 points

Short-interest surge

Warning score total: 3

signal 1 point

Selling acceleration

Warning score total: 3

signal 0 points

Sentiment 90+

Warning score total: 3

signal 0 points

05 · Principleas of 17:53 KST on 2026-08-14

Evening Trading Principles

A window recording the trading principles to hold to on the evening of a crash day

Crash-Precursor ScoreCrash-Precursor ScoreA composite signal (scored 0–4 in today’s data) that aggregates ADR stress, short-selling surges, sell-acceleration, and extreme sentiment readings to flag conditions historically associated with abrupt market declines.A score of 3 means two of four component signals are active; monitoring which inputs are confirmed versus lagged is essential to reading the score correctly. 3, Sentiment Neutral: After-Market Positions Carry Overnight Gap Risk into U.S. Session

Friday after-markets characteristically carry lower liquidity than the main session — today’s NXT snapshot showed ₩18.29tn in aggregate turnover against Thursday’s confirmed NXT total of ₩20.07tn — meaning that price discovery in the after-market is thinner and individual prints can be less representative of broad conviction.The crash-precursor score of 3 is not at a threshold the data defines as elevated, but two of its four signal inputs (credit and short-surge) carry lagged readings — Thursday’s credit figures and Tuesday’s short-selling residual — so today’s score is a partial picture; the remaining confirmed inputs (sell-acceleration 0, sentiment-90+ 0) show no additional stress as of the close.In the current regime (2026), the Friday foreign net-buying pattern has been net-selling in 74% of observed Fridays (n=31, average foreign KOSPI flow: −₩1.29tn); today’s provisional +₩3.04tn foreign print is the opposite of that base rate, which means position-holders carrying into the weekend face a regime in which the mean Friday reversal runs the other direction — a structural consideration, not a directional forecast.