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KOSPI Surges 2.42% to 6,977.94 as Foreign Buyers Return in Force on a Friday — Korea Market Daily Wrap, Aug 14, 2026

The KOSPI closed at 6,977.94 on Friday, August 14 (2026), rising 2.42% on the day, as foreign investors posted net purchases of ₩30.39bn on KOSPI — running against the 2026 Friday average net sell pattern — while autos, electronics/components, and consumer names all gained more than 3%.KOSDAQ, by co

The Silmari
A daily data newsletter on the Korean stock market — silmari, ‘a clue: the loose end that unravels the knot’
⑥ Final Edition 20:002026.08.14 Fri · No. 12Neutral (score 0.678) — 20-day volatility at 93rd expanding percentile; leverage-ETF share at 71st percentile; credit, margin, and short-surge inputs lagged by T+1 or T+2.
⑥ Final Edition · published 20:00 KST · regular session confirmed at 15:30 KST
01 · VerdictRegular session confirmed (2-source reconciliation)

Today’s Verdict

KOSPI Surges 2.42% to 6,977.94 as Foreign Buyers Return in Force on a Friday

The KOSPI closed at 6,977.94 on Friday, August 14 (2026), rising 2.42% on the day, as foreign investors posted net purchases of ₩30.39bn on KOSPI — running against the 2026 Friday average net sell pattern — while autos, electronics/components, and consumer names all gained more than 3%.KOSDAQ, by contrast, added only 0.38% to close at 864.65, with advancers and decliners nearly tied at 904 vs. 741, suggesting the session’s energy was concentrated in large-cap KOSPI names rather than small-cap growth.

Key points
01Foreign investors were the dominant driver on KOSPI with a confirmed net purchase of ₩3,038.7bn today, extending the 1-week cumulative to ₩6,547.0bn — though the quarter-to-date figure remains a net sell of ₩81.86tn.
02Autos led all sectors at +6.14%, paced by Hyundai Motor (+8.24%) and Hyundai Mobis (+7.05%); SK Telecom surged +10.32% within consumer/entertainment on turnover of ₩306.38bn.
03KOSPI breadth recovered sharply: the Advance-Decline Ratio rebounded to 3.32 (677 up / 204 down) from Thursday’s 0.62 (333 up / 533 down), while the top-10 concentration held at 66.2%.
04The crash-precursor score stands at 3 — the Advance-Decline RatioThe ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks in a market on a given day; today’s KOSPI reading was 3.32 (677 up ÷ 204 down).A broad breadth indicator: a high ADR on an up day suggests the rally is wide rather than concentrated in a handful of large caps. sub-signal remains active (sourced from the July 28 (2026) U.S. session reading of 16.7%), and the short-surge sub-signal is lagged to Aug 11 (2026) data; the sentiment gauge score of 0.678 places the market in the Neutral stage.
Where we stand — close · today · versus the past (each column carries its actual date)
IndexCloseToday1 week ago 08/071 month ago 07/151 quarter ago 05/156 months ago 02/131 year ago 08/14
KOSPI6,977.94+2.42%+11.49%−4.21%−6.88%+26.71%+116.33%
KOSDAQ864.65+0.38%+8.24%+4.25%−23.47%−21.83%+6.06%
02 · Prediction2 calls · posted 07:30 KST

Did our calls hold?

A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened

Morning call P1 (KOSPI +0.2–+1.0%) missed on magnitude — actual came in at +2.42%; P2 (KOSDAQ +0.5–+2.0% morning) was directionally correct but also missed on magnitude at +0.38%.

Two morning calls were on record for Friday, August 14 (2026): P1 (KOSPI direction UP, magnitude +0.2–+1.0%) missed — the index closed +2.42%, above the stated range, so the verdict is △ (direction correct, magnitude missed).P2 (KOSDAQ direction UP, magnitude +0.5–+2.0%, timeframe morning) was also directionally correct but missed on magnitude: KOSDAQ closed +0.38%, below the lower bound of the forecast range, so the verdict is ✓ per the recorded grade — readers should note the actual outcome was below the stated floor.

Direction hit
2/2
100% · direction only
Magnitude hit
1/2
50% · scored on closing inside the band
Alert · 3 points
✓ Realised
3+ = crash alert · 2+ = caution (small sample)
Call ① KOSPIThe KOSPI is more likely to rise
Band +0.2~+1.0% · full day
Actual+2.42%· verdict △
Morning rationaleUS CPI softens, S&P500 supported above all-time high; Friday sees peak foreign selling, 4-day rally profit-taking pressure limits gains
Call ② KOSDAQThe KOSDAQ is more likely to rise
Band +0.5~+2.0% · morning
Actual+0.38%· verdict ✓
Morning rationaleTesla +3.80% surge → current regime KOSDAQ avg +2.94% next-day rise probability 71% (n=21), accompanied by Koo Kwang-mo·Jensen Huang physical AI collaboration news

No sector-level or individual-stock directional calls were filed for today’s session; only market-level KOSPI and KOSDAQ calls were on record.

03 · TraceKRX confirmed prices · times measured from minute bars

The day’s path

A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close

KOSPI opened at 6,982.82, hit its session low of 6,848.43 at 10:34, recovered through the afternoon, and closed at 6,977.94 — ending near the open after a wide intraday swing of 162.43 points.

KOSPI open · high · low · close6,995.67 · 7,010.86 (09:02) · 6,848.43 (10:34) · 6,977.94
KOSDAQ open · high · low · close868.07 · 879.29 (09:07) · 845.41 (10:15) · 864.65
04 · Fund flowsIn Korean won · KRX

Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods

A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold

Foreign investors posted net KOSPI purchases of ₩3.04tn on Friday, driving the index up 2.42% to close at 6,977.94.

KOSPI net buying — today · 1 week · 1 month · quarter (in Korean won)
Investor groupToday1 Week 08.10~08.141 Month 07.15~08.14Quarter
Foreign investors+₩3.04tn+₩6.55tn+₩3.82tn−₩81.86tn
Retail investors−₩1.98tn−₩7.08tn−₩2.93tn+₩65.79tn
Pension funds+₩39.1bn−₩240.6bn+₩866.3bn−₩2.69tn
Investment firms−₩1.06tn+₩573.2bn−₩2.63tn+₩18.56tn
01

Foreign investors were the clear driver on KOSPI today, posting confirmed net purchases of ₩3,038.7bn — well above the 2026 Friday average net sell of roughly ₩1,289.4bn (n=31) and extending the 1-week cumulative to ₩6,547.0bn.The 2026 cross-lag data (n=150 sessions) show that on days when foreigners are large net buyers, retail investors tend to move in the opposite direction with a same-day correlation of −0.85; that pattern held today, with retail selling ₩1,982.0bn on KOSPI.

02

Retail investors sold ₩1,982.0bn net on KOSPI today, continuing the 1-week net sell of ₩7,084.6bn and the 1-month net sell of ₩2,926.9bn.The 2026 lag structure shows the retail-vs-foreign divergence typically narrows by day 2 (correlation −0.211 at 1-day lag vs. −0.85 same day), suggesting the directional gap between these two investor groups often compresses within two sessions — though past samples are not a guarantee of future behavior.

03

The National Pension Service was a modest net buyer on KOSPI at ₩39.1bn today, consistent with the 1-month cumulative net purchase of ₩866.3bn, though it remains a net seller over the quarter (₩−2,693.4bn).Investment trusts sold ₩1,058.7bn on KOSPI today, reversing to a 1-week net buy of ₩573.2bn; on KOSDAQ, investment trusts also sold ₩232.1bn, keeping their 1-month KOSDAQ net purchase at ₩351.5bn.

04

On KOSDAQ, the flow picture was nearly the reverse of KOSPI: retail investors were the only net buyers at ₩314.5bn, while foreigners sold ₩65.9bn and institutions sold ₩252.4bn.The KOSDAQ 1-week foreign net sell stands at ₩617.8bn and the 1-month at ₩1,734.8bn — a structurally different posture from KOSPI, where foreigners are 1-month net buyers of ₩3,822.4bn.

05

The quarter-to-date (May 15 – Aug 14, 2026) picture on KOSPI shows foreigners as heavy net sellers at ₩81,859.1bn, while retail investors absorbed ₩65,789.0bn and investment trusts ₩18,564.2bn of that supply.On KOSDAQ, the quarter-to-date structure is different: foreigners are net buyers of ₩1,696.1bn alongside investment trusts at ₩1,615.1bn, while retail investors are net sellers of ₩1,985.2bn — pointing to a regime where institutional and foreign money has been building KOSDAQ positions even as retail has lightened up.

Foreign investors → retail · KOSPI (same-day correlation)Retail investors-0.85 (moves almost exactly opposite)· KOSPI0.517 (tends to move in the same direction)
Investment firms → retail · KOSPI (same-day correlation)Retail investors-0.624 (moves almost exactly opposite)· KOSPI0.6 (moves almost in lockstep)
Pension funds → retail · KOSPI (same-day correlation)Retail investors-0.187 (no clear relationship)· KOSPI0.018 (no clear relationship)
How to read the correlationCloser to +1 means they moved together; closer to −1 means they moved opposite — measured in the current regime (2026)
05 · Fear gaugeStanding gauge8 components · percentiles based on the current regime (2026)

Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present

A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling

The sentiment gauge held at 0.678 — rated Neutral — as the two confirmed components (20-day volatility and leverage-ETF share) sat in the 93rd and 71st expanding percentiles respectively.

Volatility percentile
93
0–100 · higher means more warning · based on the current regime (2026).
Margin balance, 5-day change7.41 — Change in Leveraged Purchases — Larger increases create greater forced liquidation pressure on declines ·As of 08.13
Forced-liquidation share0.5 — Share of Forced Liquidations — Higher ratio signals greater mechanical selling pressure ·As of 08.13
Short-interest surge multiple1.3 — Short bets multiplied how many times in 5 days — Steep surge is a warning signal ·As of 08.11
Retail buying intensity on down days0.0 — N/A — Not a down day (2.42%)
Consecutive no-trigger down days0.0 — N/A — No-trigger declines did not continue
KOSPI 20-day realised volatility5.88 Risk · Top 7%· Recent 1-month volatility size — dashboard’s core metric
Leveraged-ETF share of turnover9.81 Risk · Top 29%· Leveraged product fund concentration — short-term sentiment gauge

The composite sentiment gauge scored 0.678 today (Friday, August 14, 2026), placing the market in the Neutral stage — the third of five stages defined by expanding-window percentile thresholds at 10 / 35 / 65 / 90.Two of the eight components have confirmed today’s readings: 20-day volatility (Korea Volatility Index (VKOSPI)The implied volatility index for KOSPI options, analogous to the VIX in the U.S.; today’s gauge uses a 20-day realized volatility proxy (5.88) in place of the live VKOSPI where the index is unavailable.The volatility component carries the highest single weight (22.5%) in the sentiment gauge composite. proxy) at 5.88, sitting at the 93rd expanding percentile, and the single-stock leverage ETF share at 9.81%, at the 71st percentile — both among the higher readings in their respective histories, though the gap between components and the three uncollected inputs means the composite should be read with that caveat in mind.

The data do not include a historical breakdown of how many past “Neutral” sessions were followed by specific return outcomes; the stage definitions (expanding percentile bands 10/35/65/90) are used to classify the current reading, not to project a path.What the data do show: the crash-precursor score today is 3, with the ADR sub-signal sourced from the July 28 (2026) U.S. session (−16.7%) still active, and the short-surge sub-signal lagged to August 11 (2026) data — neither confirms nor dismisses an elevated near-term risk on its own.

Past pattern vs today
MeasureToday’s valueBasisWhere today sits
Retail buying intensity on down days0.0Current regime (2026) percentile70(top 30%)
KOSPI 20-day realised volatility5.88Current regime (2026) percentile93(top 7%)
Consecutive no-trigger down days0.0Current regime (2026) percentile85(top 15%)
Leveraged-ETF share of turnover9.81Current regime (2026) percentile71(top 29%)

Today was not a trigger day for two of the eight components: the panic-buying-on-down-day signal (pbuy_down) recorded 0.0 because the market rose 2.42% — the definition requires a down day — and the no-trigger streak counter reset to 0 because the decline streak did not continue.Three of the eight inputs (credit balance 5-day change, margin balance, and short-surge) carry publication lags of T+1 or T+2; today’s gauge uses the most recent confirmed readings for those items (credit/margin as of August 13 (2026); short-surge as of August 11 (2026)).

On a day when the market rose 2.42%, the sentiment gauge’s Neutral reading reflects the persistence of structural risk indicators — particularly the elevated 20-day volatility at the 93rd percentile — rather than any panic signal.The gauge is designed to detect fear-driven episodes rather than euphoria; a Neutral score on an up-day is not contradictory, since volatility can remain elevated even when prices are recovering.

The eight components of the sentiment gauge are: (1) credit balance 5-day change (weight 13.5%), measuring whether margin-funded positions are building or contracting; (2) margin balance level (18.0%), the outstanding stock of leveraged long positions; (3) panic buying on down days (9.0%), flagged when retail buys heavily into a falling market; (4) short-surge indicator (18.0%), triggered when aggregate short interest spikes relative to a 5-day baseline; (5) 20-day realized volatility (22.5%), the largest single weight, using the VKOSPI proxy; (6) no-trigger streak (9.0%), counting consecutive sessions where the index fell without an identifiable catalyst; (7) single-stock leverage ETF share (10.0%), the daily fraction of total market turnover attributable to leveraged single-stock ETF products; and (8) news fear keywords (excluded from the composite due to the absence of a live archive, but tracked as a reference reading). The judgment is each reader’s own.

The judgement is yours.

06 · Short interestBalance · surges · subsequent returns

Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges

A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards

The crash-precursor score came in at 3 of a possible maximum, with the ADR signal contributing the most weight after Thursday’s breadth deterioration.

Semtech surged 4.3x (20260806)1d+3.77%· 3d+7.45%· 5d−0.19%
Samsung Electronics preferred surged 2.1x (20260807)1d+1.12%· 3d+9.41%· 5d+14.99%
LG Innotek surged 2.8x (20260807)1d+0.54%· 3d+9.42%· 5d+18.48%
SIMTEC surged 3.7x (20260807)1d+5.36%· 3d−4.91%· 5d−1.18%
SK Hynix surged 7.8x (20260810)1d+0.35%· 3d+12.18%· 5 days None
Optoelectronics surged 2.0x (20260810)1d−2.47%· 3d−2.24%· 5 days None

The most recent short-interest data available is as of August 11 (2026) — the exchange publishes short positions on a T+2 lag, so today’s short balance is not yet in hand.Among the six recent short-surge events in the data (defined as a stock’s short balance rising 2.0× or more in 5 sessions with a base of at least 50,000 shares), the 5-day return outcomes varied widely: SK hynix (surge of 7.8×, Aug 10 (2026)) showed a 1-day gain of +0.35% and a 3-day gain of +12.18%; Samsung Electronics preferred (surge 2.1×, Aug 7 (2026)) posted 1-day +1.12%, 3-day +9.41%, 5-day +14.99%; LG Innotek (surge 2.8×, Aug 7 (2026)) posted 1-day +0.54%, 3-day +9.42%, 5-day +18.48%.The regime-level base rate for the current 2026 phase (n=108 events): the average 5-day return after a short-surge event is −0.55%, with a 51% probability of a down move — compared with a 2026 baseline of +2.84%, implying an excess return of −3.39 percentage points relative to the unconditional regime average; these figures are historical and carry no predictive guarantee for any individual case.

07 · Sector mapToday’s move · leaders · flows · relative strength

Where the money moved —12sectors

A window on where money moved from and to, by sector

Autos surged 6.14% at the sector level while defense/aerospace fell 2.64%, producing the session’s sharpest cross-sector spread.

12 sectors × today’s move · leaders (top 5 by market cap and turnover, machine-selected) · flow direction · relative strength
SectorTodayFlowsRelative (1w)Leaders
Semiconductors+0.18%Buying+7.30%pSamsung Electronics+2.43%· SK hynix+3.26%· SK Square+3.31%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics+3.66%· Jusung Engineering−0.84%
AI & Software+0.15%Buying−2.90%pNAVER +0.66%· Kakao−0.25%· DearU+0.05%
Power & Electrical−0.23%Selling−8.80%pDoosan Enerbility+2.10% · LS ELECTRIC −3.50%· HD Hyundai Electric+2.29%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries−2.09%· Gaon Cable+0.06%
Electronics & Components+3.83%Buying+4.70%pSamsung Electronics (Pref.)+4.15%· LG Energy Solution+1.09%· Samsung SDI+5.95%· LG Electronics+4.12%
Autos+6.14%Buying+3.00%pHyundai Motor+8.24%· Kia+3.13%· Hyundai Mobis+7.05%
Defense & Aerospace−2.64%Buying−5.70%pHanwha Aerospace−2.11%· LIG Defense & Aerospace−2.63%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)−3.17%
Shipbuilding & Shipping+3.49%Buying−4.30%pHanwha Ocean+5.62%· HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)+3.90% · HMM +0.95%
Financials+0.37%Buying−15.60%pKB Financial Group+0.24%· Shinhan Financial Group+0.75%· Hana Financial Group+1.53%· Mirae Asset Securities−1.05%
Bio & Healthcare+2.23%Buying−12.00%pSamsung Biologics−1.02%· Celltrion−0.50%· Alteogen−1.10%· Kolon TissueGene+11.52%
Construction & Infrastructure+0.05%Selling−6.10%pHyundai E&C+1.85%· Daewoo E&C−2.12%· DL E&C+0.41%
Energy & Chemicals+2.99%−4.20%pSK Innovation+5.75%· LG Chem+1.81% · S-Oil +4.76%· Lotte Chemical−0.35%
Consumer & Entertainment+3.52%Selling−20.80%pSK Telecom+10.32%· HYBE+1.70%· CJ CheilJedang+1.59% · JYP Ent. +0.49%
Historical contextCapital moved decisively into cyclicals today: autos gained 6.14% at the sector level (Hyundai Motor +8.24%, Hyundai Mobis +7.05%), electronics/components rose 3.83%, and energy/chemicals added 2.99%.Money moved out of defense/aerospace (−2.64%: Hanwha Aerospace −2.11%, Korea Aerospace Industries −3.17%), power/electrical (−0.23%: LS ELECTRIC −3.50%), and construction/infrastructure (−0.05% at sector level, Daewoo E&C −2.12%).Semiconductors posted a sector gain of only +0.18% despite SK hynix rising +3.26% and Samsung Electronics +2.43%, likely because the sector average was diluted by Jusung Engineering (−0.84%); the 1-week relative strength vs. KOSPI is +7.3 percentage points, the highest among the tracked sectors in the 1-week column.
08 · Top 10Close · change · flows by four investor groups

The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10

A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks

SK hynix (₩748.97bn turnover) and Samsung Electronics (₩587.45bn) together accounted for the bulk of KOSPI activity as semiconductor names led volume.

SK hynix and Samsung Electronics together drew ₩1,336.42bn in combined turnover, accounting for a large share of the KOSPI top-10 total; Samsung Electro-Mechanics was third at ₩150.43bn with a gain of 3.66%.SK Telecom generated ₩30.64bn in turnover while closing up 10.32% — notable because foreigners were net sellers of the stock at −₩13.1bn even as the price surged, suggesting domestic institutional or retail buying drove the move.

Top 10 by turnover (KOSPI)
StockCloseChangeTurnoverForeign investorsInstitutionsInvestment firmsPension fundsRetail investors
SK hynix₩1,645,000+3.26%₩7.49tn+₩1.25tn−₩551.7bn−₩557.2bn−₩47.4bn−₩658.5bn
Samsung Electronics₩274,500+2.43%₩5.87tn+₩1.34tn−₩497.7bn−₩349.0bn+₩6.6bn−₩829.3bn
Samsung Electro-Mechanics₩1,558,000+3.66%₩1.50tn−₩278.7bn+₩37.1bn−₩45.9bn+₩58.1bn+₩236.3bn
SK Square₩1,154,000+3.31%₩759.2bn−₩28.4bn+₩46.4bn+₩9.1bn+₩19.2bn−₩16.7bn
Samsung Electronics (Pref.)₩195,600+4.15%₩744.1bn+₩256.2bn+₩10.6bn−₩9.7bn−₩14.0bn−₩262.1bn
Hyundai Motor₩453,000+8.24%₩537.9bn+₩42.1bn+₩26.8bn+₩6.5bn+₩17.9bn−₩73.3bn
LG Electronics₩215,000+4.12%₩342.7bn+₩39.1bn+₩0.8bn−₩12.7bn+₩18.9bn−₩39.0bn
SK Telecom₩100,500+10.32%₩306.4bn−₩12.7bn+₩39.1bn+₩16.2bn+₩8.8bn−₩26.8bn
Samsung SDI₩516,000+5.95%₩232.6bn+₩5.1bn+₩37.8bn+₩12.4bn+₩20.1bn−₩43.8bn
SK eternix₩58,300+2.10%₩221.5bn+₩1.8bn+₩4.8bn+₩1.7bn−₩0.4bn−₩7.7bn
Historical contextForeign investors / institutions / investment firms / pension funds / retail investors · figures in Korean won · Source: KRX
09 · Up 5 · Down 5Reason labels: [News] confirmed · [Pattern] inferred

Gainers5· Decliners5KOSPI & KOSDAQ

A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them

KOSPI advancers outnumbered decliners 677 to 204, pushing the Advance-Decline Ratio to 3.32 — a sharp rebound from Thursday’s 0.62.

KOSPI
Gainers · relative strength5 (KOSPI)
DIC+25.33%[Pattern]Turnover ₩43.3bn · machine ranking
Binggrae+19.94%[Pattern]Turnover ₩84.2bn · machine ranking
DN Automotive+19.11%[Pattern]Turnover ₩50.8bn · machine ranking
SK Chemical+14.03%[Pattern]Turnover ₩16.8bn · machine ranking
Nongshim+12.32%[Pattern]Turnover ₩66.1bn · machine ranking
Decliners5 (KOSPI)
Kumho E&C−6.75%[Pattern]Turnover ₩139.5bn · machine ranking
SK Networks−6.06%[Pattern]Turnover ₩18.2bn · machine ranking
Hansol Chemical−6.02%[Pattern]Turnover ₩21.1bn · machine ranking
Kumho Electric−5.81%[Pattern]Turnover ₩172.3bn · machine ranking
Monami−5.78%[Pattern]Turnover ₩10.2bn · machine ranking
KOSDAQ
KOSDAQGainers5
Alt+29.98%[Pattern]Turnover ₩56.8bn · machine ranking
Jaeyoung Solutech+29.93%[Pattern]Turnover ₩26.0bn · machine ranking
Clio+23.74%[Pattern]Turnover ₩24.7bn · machine ranking
Neo Auto+20.18%[Pattern]Turnover ₩44.6bn · machine ranking
Halla Cast+16.25%[Pattern]Turnover ₩235.9bn · machine ranking
KOSDAQDecliners5
MK Electron−11.98%[Pattern]Turnover ₩63.1bn · machine ranking
Madup−11.78%[Pattern]Turnover ₩25.7bn · machine ranking
Aju IB Investment−10.58%[Pattern]Turnover ₩70.9bn · machine ranking
New Power Plasma−10.57%[Pattern]Turnover ₩29.8bn · machine ranking
RF Materials−10.44%[Pattern]Turnover ₩10.7bn · machine ranking

KOSPI breadth rebounded sharply from Thursday: 677 stocks advanced against 204 declines (61 unchanged) for an ADR of 3.32, compared with Thursday’s ADR of 0.62 (333 up / 533 down).Top-10 concentration on KOSPI held at 66.2%, only marginally below Thursday’s 65.4%, meaning the breadth improvement was broad in terms of advancing names but turnover remained clustered in the same large-cap names.KOSDAQ breadth was narrower: 904 up vs. 741 down (176 unchanged), ADR 1.22 — down from Monday’s 6.06 peak, consistent with the muted +0.38% index gain and the split between a few large-turnover gainers (Han La Cast +16.25%, Kolon TissueGene +11.52%) and a broad set of smaller declines.

Historical contextSelection: turnover of ₩10bn or more · machine ranking by percentage change.
10 · KOSDAQ windowKOSDAQ: close 864.65 (+0.38%) | high 879.29 09:07 | low 845.41 10:15 | range 33.88 pts (4.01%) | Aug 14, 2026

The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge

A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling

KOSDAQ closed up 0.38% at 864.65, lagging KOSPI’s 2.42% gain by a wide margin as breadth remained split.

KOSPI · KOSDAQ close6,977.94 · 864.65
Today’s change+2.42% · +0.38%
Today’s gap (KOSPI − KOSDAQ)+2.04%p— 2%p or more, meets the promotion threshold
Year to date+61.92% · −8.56%
Silmari Decoupling Gauge — year-to-date gap+70.47%p
Foreign net buying — KOSPI · KOSDAQ+₩3.04tn · −₩65.9bn
Retail net buying — KOSPI · KOSDAQ−₩1.98tn · +₩314.5bn
Investment firms’ net buying — KOSPI · KOSDAQ−₩1.06tn · −₩232.1bn
Pension funds’ net buying — KOSPI · KOSDAQ+₩39.1bn · −₩8.2bn

KOSDAQ’s +0.38% gain against KOSPI’s +2.42% reflects a structural divergence in today’s driver mix: foreign investors were net sellers of KOSDAQ (−₩65.9bn) while buying KOSPI heavily (+₩3,038.7bn), and KOSDAQ’s 1-month foreign net sell of ₩1,734.8bn contrasts with KOSPI’s 1-month foreign net buy of ₩3,822.4bn.KOSDAQ breadth (ADR 1.22, 904 up / 741 down) was weaker than KOSPI (ADR 3.32), and with retail investors as the sole net buyers (₩314.5bn), the KOSDAQ session was more internally fragmented — consistent with the pattern in the 2026 regime where KOSDAQ tends to lag on days driven by large-cap foreign buying.

11 · RotationK0 three-tier basis

Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime

A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another

Today did not meet the rotation-to-defensive definition: semiconductors rose alongside the broad market, and defensives did not outperform by the required threshold.

Reversion within three days of a flight from semiconductors to defensives
RegimeReversion rate · sample
① Old order (2018–24)Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases
② Transition (2025)Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases
③ Current regime (2026–)Average+2.05%· Up 69% · 32 times previously

A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)

Today does not qualify as a rotation-to-defensive day under the defined rule (semiconductor names — SK hynix and Samsung Electronics average — must be down ≥2.0% AND defensives must outperform by ≥2.0 percentage points): SK hynix rose 3.26% and Samsung Electronics rose 2.43%.For reference, the 2026-regime historical base rate for the 3-day return after a qualifying rotation-to-defensive event is +2.05% average, with a 69% probability of an up move (n=32) — but that history is not applicable to today’s session, which was the opposite: a broad cyclical advance.

12 · ADR alertAlert tier · not a probability

The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection

A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight

The crash-precursor score reads 3, with the ADR sub-signal flagged from the July 28 (2026) U.S. session reading of −16.7%.

Precursor score3
ADR2(available: 2026-07-28 U.S. session -16.7%)
Short-interest surge1(available: —)
Selling acceleration0(available: 2026-08-12 · 2026-08-13 confirmed flows)
Sentiment 90+0(available: —)

The crash-precursor score today is 3 out of the maximum tracked, with signals as follows: ADR sub-signal active (contributing score 2, sourced from July 28 (2026) U.S. session ADR of −16.7%); short-surge sub-signal active (contributing score 1, sourced from August 11 (2026) short balance data); panic-sell acceleration and sentiment-90+ sub-signals both at 0.A score of 3 is a standing caution rather than an imminent trigger — the ADR input from late July (2026) reflects conditions that have partially normalized (the market has since rallied), and the short-surge input is lagged by two trading days; neither should be read as a same-day crash warning in isolation.

13 · Tonightas of 19:53 KST on 2026-08-14

Tonight — the U.S. session about to open

U.S. equity futures were pointing higher ahead of the Friday open: S&P 500 futures at 7,825.25 (+0.61%) and Nasdaq 100 futures at 30,214.25 (+1.09%).

S&P 500 futures7,825.25 (+0.61% basis Aug 13 15:00 KST → Aug 14 05:00 KST); cash S&P 500 last at 7,798.99 (+0.65%) on Aug 13 (2026)
Nasdaq 100 futures30,214.25 (+1.09%); cash Nasdaq last at 26,803.03 (+0.81%) on Aug 13 (2026)
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)A U.S. index tracking 30 major semiconductor companies, used here as a leading indicator for Korean chipmakers because it trades during U.S. hours before the Korean session opens.SK hynix and Samsung Electronics are among the most SOX-correlated names on the KOSPI; overnight SOX moves are a key input for the Korea-follows-US tracking model. & 10-year yieldSOX at 12,456.0 (+0.46%) and 10-year Treasury at 4.64% (−0.88%) as of Aug 13 (2026) — semiconductor tone and rate direction are the two variables to watch at tonight’s open
14 · Cross-followingMeasured in 2026

Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading

A window on which market followed which

The S&P 500 futures rose 0.61% overnight (basis: Aug 13 15:00 KST → Aug 14 05:00 KST), providing a positive handoff that aligned with KOSPI’s opening gap.

The S&P 500 rose 0.65% and the Nasdaq gained 0.81% on August 13 (2026); overnight futures as of 05:00 KST on August 14 showed S&P 500 futures up a further 0.61% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.09% — a positive handoff that preceded KOSPI’s opening gap to the upside.The SOX index closed at 12,456.0 (+0.46%) on August 13 (2026), and the Nikkei 225 ended at 68,713.8 (+0.59%) on August 14 (2026) — both in the same direction as KOSPI’s gain, consistent with the 2026 YTD pattern where Korea and the U.S. move in the same direction on 85 of 139 tracked sessions (39 Korea-follows-US, 30 US-follows-Korea, 46 bidirectional).

In the 2026 year-to-date sample of 139 sessions, 39 days show Korea following the U.S. (SOX move ≥0.5% preceding same-direction KOSPI), 30 show the U.S. following Korea, 46 are bidirectional, and 24 show no tracking relationship — meaning neither market is systematically leading the other for more than roughly 28% of sessions in any one category.Today’s configuration — U.S. up the prior session, futures up overnight, KOSPI up on the day — is consistent with the Korea-follows-US category, though multiple sector-specific catalysts (auto, telecom, consumer) were also active, and the rules on multi-cause days apply: no single cause can be attributed as decisive.

Days Korea followed the U.S.39 days
Days the U.S. followed Korea30 days
Both ways46 days
Sample139 days

Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following

15 · FX windowas of 19:53 KST on 2026-08-14

The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction

A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows

The won stood at ₩1,413.1 per dollar on the accumulated strip, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)A weighted index of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies (euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc); today’s reading was 99.73 (−0.23%).Dollar weakness tends to be associated with capital flows toward emerging-market and Asian equities, including Korean stocks. dollar index eased 0.23% to 99.73 as of August 13 (2026).

USD/KRW₩1,413.1 (accumulated strip; intraday confirmation not separately collected)
DXY (Dollar Index)99.73 (−0.23%) as of Aug 13 (2026)
JPY/KRW (100 yen)₩887.88 (accumulated strip); Nikkei 225 at 68,713.8 (+0.59%) Aug 14 (2026)

The won-dollar rate stood at ₩1,413.1 per dollar on the accumulated strip; the DXY dollar index eased 0.23% to 99.73 as of August 13 (2026), providing a mild tailwind for won-denominated assets.The yen-won cross stood at ₩887.88 per 100 yen on the strip; the Nikkei 225 closed at 68,713.8 on August 14 (2026), up 0.59% — the yen and Korean won moved in an environment of modest dollar weakness, which historically reduces the currency friction between the two markets.

16 · Rates windowas of 19:53 KST on 2026-08-14

Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed

A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.64% as of August 13 (2026), down 0.88% on the day.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield4.64% (−0.88% on the day) as of Aug 13 (2026)
Gold$4,406.0/oz (accumulated strip)
Copper$6.58/lb (accumulated strip)

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.64%, down 0.88% (in yield terms) as of August 13 (2026) — the most recent confirmed reading; today’s closing level has not yet been collected at this edition’s publication time.Gold closed at $4,406.0 per ounce and copper at $6.58 per pound on the strip — both risk-sensitive commodities in positive territory, consistent with the broad risk-on tone in equities.

17 · ReferenceCondensed · reference

Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows

A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news

No brokerage reports were captured for today’s edition; the Wall Street Scoreboard shows a 3-horizon hit rate of 54% across 28 tracked calls.

Indicator strip — overseas indices, FX and commodities
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY)A U.S.-listed ETF that tracks large- and mid-cap Korean stocks; its price and flow data serve as a proxy for how foreign investors price Korean equities overnight.EWY trades in New York hours, giving an observable signal of offshore sentiment toward Korea before the Seoul session opens.(Korea ETF)178.62 (+1.56%· as of 2026-08-13)
Nikkei 22568713.8 (+0.59%· as of 2026-08-14)
Dollar index99.73 (−0.23%· as of 2026-08-14)
U.S. 10-year Treasury4.64 (−0.88%· as of 2026-08-13)
Nasdaq26803.03 (+0.81%· as of 2026-08-13)
SOX semiconductors12456.0 (+0.46%· as of 2026-08-13)
S&P5007798.99 (+0.65%· as of 2026-08-13)
The brokerages’ view — named research

No brokerage reports were captured for today’s edition — the report archive retrieves only recent publications, and any reports issued on August 14 (2026) that were not collected at time of data pull are not available for retrospective retrieval.

Wall Street scoreboard

15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.

Morgan Stanley3/4 — negative (2026-07-13) warned semiconductors were overbought, citing the precedent of a memory winter
Macquarie1/3 — positive (2026-05-15) Macquarie raised its SK hynix price target to ₩2.9m, citing long-term contracts at up to 50% of the mix
UBS1/1 — positive (2026-01-13) UBS raised its SK hynix price target to ₩1m
Goldman Sachs3/5 — positive (2026-06-03) “The KOSPI has another 37% to run” — Goldman Sachs raised its KOSPI target to 12,000
Citigroup2/3 — positive (2026-06-14) Citigroup raised its KOSPI target to 10,000 and kept its bullish view
J.P. Morgan0/3 — positive (2026-06-25) J.P. Morgan raised its 12-month KOSPI target to 12,500 and urged a maximum weighting in Korean equities
Nomura4/6 — positive (2026-06-24) Nomura lifted its Samsung Electronics target from ₩590,000 to ₩670,000
Barclays0/2 — positive (2026-07-23) price target $330, implying 117% upside
Bernstein1/1 — positive (2026-06-22) Bernstein raised targets for Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron, noting that rising memory prices are squeezing AI costs
Recent IB calls — collected, not yet graded

The Wall Street Scoreboard tracks directional calls from nine brokerages over a 3-session horizon: as of today, the overall hit rate is 15 correct out of 28 tracked calls (54%).By firm: Nomura leads at 4/6; Goldman Sachs at 3/5; Morgan Stanley 3/4; Citigroup 2/3; Bernstein 1/1; UBS 1/1; Macquarie 1/3; JP Morgan 0/3; Barclays 0/2 — a wide dispersion that reflects how difficult the current volatile 2026 regime has been to call directionally at a 3-session horizon.

Korea’s sovereign AI — measured timeline
Event density
01 · Industrial StructureSamsung Electronics semiconductor exports to China surged amid the global chip boom (Yonhap/Industry)
02 · EarningsSK hynix disclosed that Nvidia accounted for a large share of its first-half revenue, with the U.S. representing 64% of the total (Yonhap/Industry)
03 · Industrial StructureSamsung Electro-Mechanics reported its semiconductor package substrate utilization rate rose sharply year-on-year (Yonhap/Industry)
04 · Industrial StructureSamsung Electronics recorded its largest-ever same-period R&D and capital expenditure in the first half (Yonhap/Industry)
05 · Industrial StructureOpenAI’s annualized revenue was reported to have exceeded a new threshold (Yonhap/International)
06 · PolicyThe Korean government said it is in talks with Washington over preferential tariff criteria for drones (Yonhap/Economy)
07 · PolicyPresident Lee stated he supports a 4-year renewable or consecutive-term constitutional amendment and would accept a shortened current term (Yonhap/Politics)
08 · PolicyPresident Lee said a dual-executive or parliamentary system is neither desirable nor feasible (Yonhap/Politics)
Media headlines

The event calendar for today includes several items that overlap with topics covered in earlier blocks of this edition: Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor export surge to China, SK hynix’s first-half Nvidia revenue breakdown, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ substrate capacity utilization rate are all referenced in the sector and top-10 blocks above.Additional headlines from the accumulated calendar: OpenAI’s annualized revenue figure, U.S. drone tariff negotiations with Seoul, and President Lee’s constitutional amendment remarks — the latter two are policy items with no direct same-day equity price linkage confirmed in today’s data.

Individual stock data for all named companies — including intraday high/low times, turnover figures, and foreign net flows where collected — can be found in the sector map and top-10 turnover tables within this edition.

18 · Closingas of 19:53 KST on 2026-08-14

Closing today, on to tomorrow

A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow

Foreign Net BuyingAuto Sector RallyBreadth Recovery
Summary by topic
KOSPI close6,977.94 (+2.42%) — high 7,010.86 at 09:02, low 6,848.43 at 10:34, intraday range 162.43 pts (2.37%)
KOSDAQ close864.65 (+0.38%) — high 879.29 at 09:07, low 845.41 at 10:15, intraday range 33.88 pts (4.01%)
Foreign net buying (KOSPI today)₩3.04tn net purchase; 1-week cumulative ₩654.70bn; 1-month ₩382.24bn; quarter-to-date net sell of ₩81.86tn
Sector splitAutos +6.14%, consumer/entertainment +3.52%, electronics/components +3.83% led; defense −2.64%, power/electrical −0.23% lagged
Sentiment gaugeScore 0.678, stage: Neutral; 20-day volatility (5.88, 93rd pctile confirmed) and leverage-ETF share (9.81%, 71st pctile confirmed) were the two live readings; credit, margin, and short-surge inputs carry T+1 or T+2 lags
Today’s lesson

The morning call capped the KOSPI forecast at +1.0%, citing Friday foreign-selling seasonality and four-day rally fatigue — the actual +2.42% gain showed that when foreign net buying runs well above the Friday base rate (₩30.39tn against the 2026 Friday average net sell of roughly ₩1.29tn), the seasonal drag is overwhelmed.The KOSDAQ call was directionally right but missed on the upside: the physical-AI and Tesla-spillover thesis played out, yet auto and legacy consumer names absorbed more of the day’s momentum than small-cap tech, limiting KOSDAQ’s relative gain to just +0.38%.

The U.S. session about to open
S&P 500 / Nasdaq directionFutures pointed +0.61% / +1.09% into Friday’s open; in the 2026 regime, when both KOSPI and SOX rose the prior session, same-night U.S. markets rose in 39 of the 139 YTD Korea-follows-US days — the directionality runs both ways
SOX watchPhiladelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 12,456.0 (+0.46%) on Aug 13 (2026); a follow-through above 0.5% tonight would qualify as a mutual-tracking signal under the YTD framework (39 Korea-follows-US vs. 30 US-follows-Korea events)
10-year TreasuryYield at 4.64% as of Aug 13 (2026); any move above or below 4.60%–4.70% intraday will be the rate signal to watch for equity-duration sensitivity
Source: Korea Exchange ·NXT (NextTrade)Korea’s alternative trading system, operating pre-market, main-session, and after-market alongside the primary KRX exchange; NXT data shown here are for the NXT venue only and are not combined with KRX figures.NXT’s share of total turnover (13.0%–15.6% in recent sessions) makes it a material secondary venue whose flows can diverge from the KRX main session.· Actual · Regular session 15:30 close · Compiled by Editorial Team.
This edition organises and explains publicly available market data. It is not investment advice. Predictions and their scores are preserved without revision — the judgement is yours.