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KOSPI closes the week at 6,977.94, up +11.49% on the week — foreigners net bought ₩6.55tn over five sessions — Korea Market Monday Preview, Aug 16, 2026

Korea’s equity market delivered one of its larger weekly advances in the 2026 data set, with the KOSPI gaining +11.49% to close at 6,977.94 — ranked 2nd out of 32 weeks by weekly return.Foreign buying drove the bulk of the move, concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday when foreigners net bought ₩2.84

The Silmari
A daily data newsletter on the Korean stock market — silmari, ‘a clue: the loose end that unravels the knot’
◈ Weekend Silmari — Monday Preview 20:002026.08.16 Sun · No. 14Neutral — composite score 0.678; 20-day volatility at the 93rd percentile and leverage share at 9.81% (71st percentile) are confirmed; credit balance, margin ratio, and short-surge readings carry T+1/T+2 delays and are not yet reflected in Friday’s score.
◈ Weekend — Monday Preview · published 20:00 KST · ahead of Monday’s open
01 · Monday briefBasis: U.S. Friday close + last week (Mon–Fri) confirmed

Monday Preview — the weekend in brief

A window setting out only what is needed on Monday morning before the week turns

KOSPI closes the week at 6,977.94, up +11.49% on the week — foreigners net bought ₩6.55tn over five sessions

Korea’s Best Week in Months: KOSPI +11.49%, Foreigners Pour In ₩6.55tn

The weekend in brief
01The KOSPI closed Friday at 6,977.94, posting a weekly gain of +11.49% (ranked 2nd out of 32 weeks in the 2026 data set); the KOSDAQ added +8.24% on the week (ranked 3rd out of 32).
02Foreign investors were net buyers of ₩6.55tn on a weekly basis, with retail investors on the other side at net sales of ₩7.08tn; investment firms added ₩0.62tn net, while pension funds (including the National Pension Service) were net sellers of ₩0.24tn.
03U.S. markets closed modestly lower on Friday (August 14, 2026): the Nasdaq at 26,729.16 (-0.28%), the S&P 500 at 7,785.76 (-0.17%), and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)A U.S. index tracking the performance of major semiconductor companies listed in America, including chipmakers and equipment suppliers.Because Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are among Korea’s largest stocks, the SOX is closely tracked as a leading indicator for the KOSPI’s direction. semiconductor index at 12,417.05 (-0.31%); iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY)A U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund that tracks the MSCI Korea Index, giving international investors exposure to Korean equities during U.S. trading hours.EWY’s overnight move is watched as a real-time proxy for foreign sentiment on Korean stocks before the Seoul market opens., the Korea ETF, bucked the trend at +0.63%.
04In the 2026 regime (29 Mondays), the KOSPI has risen on 59% of Mondays with an average move of -0.46% and an average daily range of ±3.43%; foreigners have been net sellers on 76% of those Mondays.

Korea’s equity market delivered one of its larger weekly advances in the 2026 data set, with the KOSPI gaining +11.49% to close at 6,977.94 — ranked 2nd out of 32 weeks by weekly return.Foreign buying drove the bulk of the move, concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday when foreigners net bought ₩2.84tn and ₩2.11tn respectively, with retail investors selling into each session.Heading into Monday, U.S. benchmarks finished Friday slightly in the red while the Korea ETF EWY edged higher, leaving the directional signal for Seoul mixed rather than clearly positive or negative.

02 · US Friday closeU.S. Friday session close (confirmed) · Yahoo Finance

US Friday session confirmed

A window on where the US finished while Korea was closed

Wall Street slips Friday — Nasdaq -0.28%, SOX -0.31%, EWY +0.63%

Closes and changes are confirmed U.S. Friday-session figures (early Saturday KST)
MeasureCloseChangeMeaning
Nasdaq26,729.16−0.28%U.S. tech — the first signal for Korean chips on Monday
S&P5007,785.76−0.17%The broad U.S. market’s temperature
SOX semiconductors12,417.05−0.31%U.S. semiconductors — the overseas index closest to KOSPI
Dow53,732.41−0.20%U.S. blue chips
EWY (Korea ETF)179.74+0.63%Korea as seen from the U.S. — a leading read on foreign sentiment
Dollar index99.67−0.29%A stronger dollar is a headwind for foreign inflows
U.S. 10-year Treasury4.7+1.19%Rates — higher is a headwind for growth stocks
Nikkei 225 (prior session)68,713.8+0.59%Japan’s Friday close — an Asia-sync reference
USD/KRW (prior Seoul session)1,418.5−0.12%The won — a stronger won favors foreign buying

U.S. equity benchmarks closed modestly lower on Friday, August 14 (2026): the Nasdaq at 26,729.16 (-0.28%), the S&P 500 at 7,785.76 (-0.17%), the Dow at 53,732.41 (-0.20%), and the SOX at 12,417.05 (-0.31%).The dollar index eased to 99.67 (-0.29%) while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.70% (+1.19% on the day); the won-dollar rate last quoted in Seoul was 1,418.5 (-0.12%), and the Nikkei 225 closed at 68,713.8 (+0.59%) on Friday.EWY, the U.S.-listed Korea ETF, gained +0.63% even as broad U.S. indices fell — a split signal that does not by itself resolve the direction for Monday’s Seoul open; the 2026 regime shows the KOSPI has followed the prior night’s SOX in the same direction in 39 of 139 sessions, moved independently in 46 sessions, and mirrored U.S. moves in various other combinations, so no single-cause reading is reliable.

03 · Weekend wireWeekend Domestic & International News — Yonhapnews RSS

Weekend news — home and abroad

A window on the news that came over the weekend and what it means for Monday

Weekend wires: household debt crosses ₩2,000tn threshold; U.S.–Iran ceasefire and FOMC minutes in focus for the week ahead

DateLayerNewsImplication
08.16(Sun) 05:47MacroEntering ‘2 Quadrillion ₩ Household Debt’ Era…Financial Soundness Alert as Rates Rise (Yonhapnews(Economy))Domestic household leverage at this level may keep the Bank of Korea cautious on any rate easing, which could weigh on rate-sensitive sectors; no single causal link can be assumed, but credit-market stress is worth watching Monday.
08.16(Sun) 07:00Geopolitics[NYSE Weekly Outlook] US-Iran Ceasefire Turning Point…FOMC Minutes & Walmart Earnings in Focus (Yonhapnews(International))A U.S.–Iran ceasefire outcome and the release of FOMC minutes this week could shift risk appetite and dollar direction; either development may influence foreign flows into Korean equities, though the direction is not predetermined.
Entering ‘2 Quadrillion ₩ Household Debt’ Era…Financial Soundness Alert as Rates Rise
[NYSE Weekly Outlook] US-Iran Ceasefire Turning Point…FOMC Minutes & Walmart Earnings in Focus
Scope of collectionCollection Period 08.15(Sat) 12:00 ~ 08.16 22:42 · Yonhapnews RSS 5 Categories (Economy·Securities·Industry·Politics·International) · Implications judged as clues
04 · Monday watchlistMonday pre-open checklist — all past statistics and confirmed figures

Monday watch list

A window setting out what to look at first on Monday morning

Monday setup: 59% up-day rate but foreigners net sold on 76% of 2026 Mondays

Monday regime (2026, n=29)KOSPI has risen on 59% of Mondays and fallen on 41%; the average close-to-close change is -0.46% with an average daily range of ±3.43%.
Foreign flow on MondaysIn the 2026 regime, foreigners have been net sellers on 76% of Mondays (net buyers on 24%); last Monday (Aug 10) they sold ₩1.49tn.
Precursor score (Friday basis)The Friday precursor score stands at 3 (Advance-Decline Ratio (ADR)The ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks on an exchange over a given period, used to gauge the breadth of a market move.A reading that diverges sharply from the index direction can signal that a rally or sell-off is narrow and potentially unsustainable. signal: 2, short-surge signal: 1, sell-acceleration: 0, sentiment 90+: 0) — treat as a preliminary reading pending Monday morning recalculation, as it includes delayed disclosures.
Korea–U.S. co-movement (2026 YTD, n=139)Korea has followed the prior night’s U.S. move in 39 sessions, U.S. has followed Korea in 30, both moved together in 46, and neither followed in 24 — no dominant pattern.
Sentiment gauge (Friday)Composite score 0.678, stage: Neutral; confirmed components — 20-day volatility 5.88 (93rd percentile), leverage share 9.81% (71st percentile); credit balance, margin ratio, and short-surge data carry delays of T+1 or T+2.

Monday’s session arrives after a week of outsized gains; the 2026 regime gives a 59% probability of a positive close, but foreigners have been net sellers on 76% of those same Mondays, and the average Monday return is -0.46% — the two statistics point in different directions.The sentiment gauge’s confirmed inputs — 20-day volatility at the 93rd percentile and leverage share at the 71st percentile — suggest the market is not in a low-risk state, though three components remain delayed and the full picture will be clearer after Monday’s open.

05 · Lessons carriedCarried over from last week’s wrap (Sat 12:00)

What we carry from last week

A window for what to carry from last week into next

What the week’s data leaves behind: ₩6.55tn foreign buying, a 2nd-ranked weekly return, and a neutral sentiment gauge

Weekly KOSPI returnKOSPI +11.49% on the week to 6,977.94, ranked 2nd out of 32 weeks in the 2026 data set; intra-week high-low range was 12.83% (ranked 8th out of 33 weeks).
Foreign net buying (week)Foreigners net bought ₩6.55tn over the five sessions, concentrated Wednesday (₩2.84tn) and Thursday (₩2.11tn) and Friday (₩3.04tn); retail investors were net sellers of ₩7.08tn on the week.
Sentiment compositeFriday composite score 0.678, stage Neutral; 20-day volatility at the 93rd percentile (confirmed), leverage share at the 71st percentile (confirmed); credit balance and short-surge data remain on T+1/T+2 delay.
Key macro / event risk aheadU.S.–Iran ceasefire talks, FOMC minutes release, and Walmart earnings are identified in weekend wire reports as the week’s primary event risks for U.S. and global markets.

The week’s data set closes with a domestic market that has re-rated sharply higher on foreign demand, while retail investors absorbed significant selling pressure throughout; whether that foreign bid carries into Monday will be informed in part by the FOMC minutes and geopolitical developments that remain unresolved as of Sunday evening.The judgment is each reader’s own.

Sources: Yahoo Finance · Korea Exchange · FinanceDataReader · verified · basis: U.S. Friday close · The Silmari desk.
This edition organises and explains publicly available market data. It is not investment advice. Predictions and their scores are preserved without revision — the judgement is yours.