Today’s Verdict
KOSPI +0.73% despite Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexA US equity index tracking the 30 largest semiconductor companies listed on American exchanges, widely used as a barometer for the global chip cycle.KOSPI heavyweight Samsung Electronics and SK hynix trade in lockstep with SOX over long periods, making overnight SOX moves a key input for the morning call. rout — morning call missed direction; defense sold, semis bought
The KOSPI closed Tuesday, August 11 (2026) at 6,345.53, up +0.73%, defying an overnight SOX decline of –2.94% that anchored The Silmari’s morning call for a drop of –1.5% to –2.5% — that call missed.The session’s internal divide was stark: Samsung Electronics surged +4.13% and drew ₩5.51tn in turnover, while defense names including Korea Aerospace Industries (–12.07%) and Hanwha Ocean (–5.72%) led declines, suggesting sector rotation rather than a broad lift.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 08/04 | 1 month ago 07/10 | 1 quarter ago 05/12 | 6 months ago 02/10 | 1 year ago 08/11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,345.53 | +0.73% | −0.21% | −15.12% | −16.98% | +19.69% | +97.88% |
| KOSDAQ | 857.84 | +0.39% | +9.88% | +2.44% | −27.26% | −23.08% | +5.66% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
Morning KOSPI call (–1.5% to –2.5%) missed; KOSDAQ partial-hit as index closed +0.39%
Two predictions were logged for Tuesday, August 11 (2026): P1 called KOSPI lower by –1.5% to –2.5% — the index instead closed +0.73%, a clear miss (verdict ✗); P2 called KOSDAQ flat to slightly lower in the morning — the index closed +0.39% for the full session, recorded as a partial hit (verdict △).The SOX-to-KOSPI lag that underpinned P1 holds a 2026 YTD co-directional count of 39 Korea-follows-US days out of 139 sessions — less than a coin flip — a base rate that was not adequately weighted this morning.
No prediction was entered for individual sectors or defense-rotation today; the defense selloff of –5% to –12% across multiple names was therefore not pre-flagged in this letter.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
KOSPI low set at 09:07 (6,213.78), high at 13:32 (6,405.81) — a 192-point intraday arc that closed near mid-range at 6,345.53
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
Foreigners net sold ₩149.1bn on-session while retail buyers absorbed ₩90.0bn; institutions posted a slim ₩21.2bn net purchase on KOSPI
| Investor group | Today | 1 week 08.05~08.11 | 1 month 07.10~08.11 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | +₩53.5bn | −₩4.15tn | −₩5.20tn | −₩101.32tn |
| Retail investors | −₩70.8bn | +₩3.25tn | +₩3.95tn | +₩84.12tn |
| Pension funds | −₩42.6bn | −₩283.8bn | +₩975.7bn | −₩3.26tn |
| Investment firms | +₩62.8bn | +₩832.7bn | −₩893.1bn | +₩18.98tn |
Foreign investors net sold ₩149.1bn on KOSPI in today’s session, extending a run that has reached –₩41.45tn over the trailing week and –₩51.99tn over the trailing month.Despite today’s net selling, the index rose — a configuration in which institutional buying offset foreign pressure; investment trust firms (brokerages and funds) posted ₩63.2bn in net purchases on the day.
Retail investors net bought ₩90.0bn today and have accumulated ₩32.5bn over the trailing week and ₩39.5bn over the trailing month.In the 2026 current regime, the same-day correlation between foreign net flow and retail net flow is –0.846 (147-session sample) — retail and foreigners continue to trade against each other on a near-daily basis.
The National Pension Service and other pension funds net sold ₩42.6bn today, and are –₩28.4bn over the trailing week; over the trailing month, pension funds are net buyers at +₩97.6bn.Investment trust firms are +₩83.3bn over the trailing week and +₩19.80tn quarter-to-date — the institutional grouping that has most consistently offset foreign outflows in the current quarter.
KOSDAQ investor-breakdown data is unavailable today; the fallback data source covers KOSPI only, so no breakdown by investor type is reported for the junior market.
Over the quarter beginning May 12 (2026), foreigners have net sold –₩101.32tn on KOSPI while retail has absorbed ₩84.12tn and institutional investors ₩14.80tn — a structural divergence now running for roughly 13 weeks.Investment trust firms account for ₩18.98tn of that institutional quarter-to-date figure, while pension funds are net sellers of –₩3.26tn over the same period.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Sentiment gauge holds ‘Neutral’ at 0.8 with volatility percentile at 95 — four of eight inputs uncollected
The sentiment gauge closed Tuesday at a score of 0.8, rated Neutral.Of the eight component inputs, only three were collected today: the ‘no-trigger streak’ component scored at the 85th percentile, the 20-day volatility proxy (VKOSPI substitute) at the 95th percentile at a reading of 6.1, and the panic-buy-on-down-days component at the 70th percentile.
Historical base-rate comparisons by stage are available only for the full composite score; with four of eight inputs missing, the stage boundary of ‘Neutral’ (expanding-window percentile between 35 and 65) should be read with caution — the true score could shift materially once the missing inputs are recovered.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 70(top 30%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 6.1 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 95(top 5%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 85(top 15%) |
Today was a no-trigger day: the crash-precursor score stands at 3, with Advance/Decline RatioThe number of advancing stocks divided by the number of declining stocks on a given exchange for a given session; a reading above 1.0 means more stocks rose than fell.A breadth indicator — a rising index on a low ADR suggests the gain is concentrated in a few large caps rather than broadly shared. contributing 2 points and selling-acceleration 1 point; the short-surge and sentiment-90+ triggers both scored zero.
On no-trigger days the gauge reflects structural positioning rather than event-driven fear; the 95th-percentile volatility reading indicates elevated background noise even in the absence of a discrete catalyst.
The eight-component gauge combines: ① 5-day credit-balance change, ② margin-loan balance, ③ panic-buying-on-down-days, ④ short-selling surge, ⑤ 20-day realized volatility, ⑥ consecutive no-trigger days, ⑦ single-stock leveraged ETF share of turnover, and ⑧ a news-fear keyword proxy.Components ①②④ and ⑦ were not collected today; the composite score is therefore a partial estimate derived from the three available inputs, weighted by their stated coefficients (volatility 0.225, margin 0.18, short-surge 0.18, leveraged-ETF share 0.10, credit 0.135, no-trigger streak 0.09, panic-buy 0.09).
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
Short-surge base rate in the current regime (2026–) shows a 5-day average return of –1.76% across 99 events, with a 54% probability of decline
The short-selling surge base-rate dataset covers 362 events defined as a short-interest balance rising 2.0× or more within five trading days on stocks with at least 50,000 shares short.In the current regime (2026–, 99 events), the average 5-day return after such a surge is –1.76%, with a 54% probability of a decline — versus a regime baseline of +2.98%, implying an excess return of –4.74 percentage points.The most recent logged surges involve Samsung Electronics (surge ×53.6 on July 27) and SK hynix (×4.9 on July 27); both names are among the top-two turnover leaders today, and their 5-day and 10-day outcomes after those surge dates were mixed (Samsung Electronics: r5 –5.71%, r10 –9.45%; SK hynix: r5 –13.71%, r10 –21.81%).
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Semiconductor heavyweights rebound as defence names slide — only 4 of 12 sectors closed higher
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | +3.54% | Buying | +1.25%p | Samsung Electronics+4.13%· SK hynix+0.35%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics−0.94%· Jusung Engineering+12.15%· SK Square−0.42% |
| AI & Software | +1.20% | Buying | −1.76%p | NAVER +1.18%· Kakao+2.91%· DearU−0.49% |
| Power & Electrical | −2.29% | Selling | +5.63%p | Doosan Enerbility−2.50%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries−3.51% · LS ELECTRIC −2.64%· HD Hyundai Electric−3.27%· Gaon Cable+0.45% |
| Electronics & Components | −1.93% | Selling | +7.56%p | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)+4.77%· Samsung SDI−4.57%· LG Electronics−4.37%· LG Energy Solution−3.54% |
| Autos | −1.33% | Buying | +3.38%p | Hyundai Motor−1.23%· Hyundai Mobis−1.88%· Kia−0.89% |
| Defense & Aerospace | −8.14% | Selling | +1.14%p | Hanwha Aerospace−4.69%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)−12.07%· LIG Defense & Aerospace−7.65% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | −2.09% | Selling | +3.63%p | Hanwha Ocean−5.72%· HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)−1.49% · HMM +0.93% |
| Financials | −2.33% | Selling | +1.89%p | KB Financial Group−2.97%· Shinhan Financial Group−1.79%· Hana Financial Group−2.07%· Mirae Asset Securities−2.47% |
| Bio & Healthcare | +0.72% | Buying | +17.27%p | Alteogen−5.89%· Celltrion+4.73%· Samsung Biologics+2.55%· Kolon TissueGene+1.50% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | +1.13% | Selling | +11.94%p | Daewoo E&C+1.70%· Hyundai E&C+1.54%· DL E&C+0.14% |
| Energy & Chemicals | −0.25% | Selling | +8.10%p | SK Innovation−0.32% · S-Oil +1.43%· LG Chem−1.44%· Lotte Chemical−0.68% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | −2.75% | Selling | −2.11%p | SK Telecom+1.18%· CJ CheilJedang−8.52%· HYBE−1.96% · JYP Ent. −1.69% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix together drew ₩10.73tn in KOSPI turnover, dominating the top-two slots by a wide margin
Samsung Electronics (₩5.51tn) and SK hynix (₩5.21tn) together accounted for more than half of the top-ten KOSPI turnover of roughly ₩13.76tn, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics (₩904.7bn) a distant third.On KOSDAQ, Jusung Engineering led with ₩519.0bn and rose +12.15%, followed by Jeju Semiconductor (₩282.9bn, +3.08%) and Alteogen (₩245.4bn, –5.89%).
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics | ₩239,500 | +4.13% | ₩5.51tn | +₩589.8bn | +₩76.5bn | — | — | −₩643.0bn |
| SK hynix | ₩1,425,000 | +0.35% | ₩5.21tn | −₩300.1bn | +₩97.4bn | — | — | +₩189.9bn |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,262,000 | −0.94% | ₩904.7bn | −₩50.0bn | −₩20.8bn | — | — | +₩69.2bn |
| SK Square | ₩945,000 | −0.42% | ₩443.7bn | +₩64.8bn | −₩76.2bn | — | — | +₩10.7bn |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩180,200 | +4.77% | ₩422.7bn | −₩2.5bn | +₩38.0bn | — | — | −₩35.6bn |
| Hanwha Solutions | ₩36,350 | +3.12% | ₩332.1bn | −₩8.6bn | +₩32.4bn | — | — | −₩22.9bn |
| Daewon Cable | ₩14,520 | −2.88% | ₩265.7bn | −₩6.9bn | −₩1.4bn | — | — | +₩8.4bn |
| Samwha Capacitor | ₩84,500 | +4.06% | ₩201.7bn | −₩33.6bn | +₩1.6bn | — | — | +₩31.9bn |
| Celltrion | ₩210,500 | +4.73% | ₩184.9bn | +₩63.9bn | +₩11.6bn | — | — | −₩73.8bn |
| KB Financial Group | ₩166,600 | −2.97% | ₩174.8bn | −₩33.7bn | +₩1.1bn | — | — | +₩33.1bn |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
Defense names led KOSPI declines — Korea Aerospace Industries –12.1%, Hanwha Ocean –5.7% — while Samsung Electronics rose +4.1%
On KOSPI, the top gainers by percentage (among stocks with ₩10bn+ turnover) were led by Kumho Construction (+29.98%), NHN (+29.82%), and Hyein (+19.39%); the top decliners were Korea Aerospace Industries (–12.07%), CJ CheilJedang (–8.52%), and LIG Defence & Aerospace (–7.65%).On KOSDAQ, Bonne hit the upper limit at +30.00%, Namhwa Construction +29.98%, and Sosan +29.86%; Alteogen (–5.89%, turnover ₩245.4bn) was the most actively traded decliner.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ closed +0.39% at 857.84, lagging KOSPI’s +0.73% gain on a high-low range of 34.71 points
KOSDAQ closed at 857.84, up +0.39%, trailing KOSPI’s +0.73% by 0.34 percentage points.The intraday range was 34.71 points (4.13% of the index level), with the day-low of 840.45 set at 09:07 and the day-high of 875.16 at 09:51 — the junior market front-loaded its move and spent the rest of the session consolidating well below its morning peak.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Defense-to-semiconductor rotation visible on Tuesday, August 11 (2026); current-regime 3-day forward return after such shifts averaged +1.92% across 30 events
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+1.92%· Up 70% · Past 30 occurrences |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
The data does not provide a sector-level aggregate to formally confirm or deny a rotation event under the letter’s definition (semis down ≥2.0% AND defensives outperforming by ≥2.0 percentage points).What the individual stock data does show is a clear intra-session split: defense names gave back 5%–12% while Samsung Electronics added +4.1% — directionally consistent with a rotation back toward semis, which in the current regime (2026–, 30 events) has preceded a 3-day average KOSPI return of +1.92% with a 70% up-probability.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
Crash-precursor score stands at 3 of a possible maximum, driven by ADR signal (2) and selling-acceleration signal (1)
The crash-precursor score is 3 today, composed of an ADR signal (2 points, based on the US session ADR of –16.7% logged on July 28 (2026)) and a selling-acceleration signal (1 point, based on confirmed net-selling on August 7 and August 10).The short-surge component scored zero (most recent confirmed short data is as of August 7, reflecting T+2 disclosure lag), and the sentiment-90+ component also scored zero.The score’s limit is that the ADR reference is now two weeks stale, and today’s market-breadth data (advance/decline counts) was not collected — so the score cannot be updated with fresh breadth readings.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures point modestly lower ahead of Tuesday’s US open; SOX context from Monday’s –2.94% drop carries into pricing
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
SOX fell –2.94% on Monday, August 10 (2026) yet KOSPI rose +0.73% on Tuesday — a divergence from the 2026 YTD base rate
SOX fell –2.94% on Monday, August 10 (2026); by the letter’s tracking rule, a SOX move of ≥0.5% in magnitude qualifies as a potential lead signal for KOSPI.Today KOSPI rose +0.73% — moving in the opposite direction to Monday’s SOX, a non-follow outcome that contributed directly to the morning prediction miss.
In 2026 year-to-date (139 sessions), KOSPI has followed the prior night’s SOX direction on 39 days, while the US has followed Korea on 30 days; both moved the same way on 46 days, and neither followed on 24 days.The 39-of-139 ‘Korea follows US’ count means a same-direction outcome occurs in fewer than 3 in 10 sessions — using SOX direction as a stand-alone predictor carries material error.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won/dollar fixed at 1,415.15 as of Tuesday, August 11 (2026), up +0.58% from the prior session
The won closed at ₩1,415.15 per dollar as of Tuesday, August 11 (2026), up 0.58% from the prior session — a weaker won on a day when KOSPI rose, an unusual pairing that may reflect dollar-index stability (DXY 99.84, +0.03%) rather than Korea-specific risk-off.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.70% as of Monday, August 10 (2026), up +0.84% from the prior session
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.70%, up 0.84% from the prior session as of Monday, August 10 (2026) — the most recent available reading.A yield at this level keeps the interest-rate backdrop elevated for equity valuations; no Bank of Korea rate decision is flagged in today’s event calendar.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
No brokerage reports were published or collected today; Wall Street scoreboard hit rate stands at 54% across 28 calls
No brokerage research reports were collected for Tuesday, August 11 (2026); the data pipeline for same-day reports requires real-time capture and none was recorded.
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
The Wall Street Scoreboard tracks directional calls (3-session horizon) from nine brokerages.Current standings: Nomura 4/6, Goldman Sachs 3/5, Morgan Stanley 3/4, Citi 2/3, Bernstein 1/1, UBS 1/1, Macquarie 1/3, JP Morgan 0/3, Barclays 0/2; aggregate hit rate 54% (15 of 28).
Event-calendar headlines from Tuesday are listed in the Events section below; they overlap with the semiconductor export and Samsung Electronics themes covered in the Flows and Sectors blocks.
Individual company coverage: no analyst price-target changes or earnings revisions are available for today — readers are directed to each firm’s investor-relations page for the most current guidance.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
The morning call projected a KOSPI decline of –1.5% to –2.5% on the back of SOX –2.94% and three consecutive days of foreign net selling; the index instead rose +0.73%, missing the direction entirely — a reminder that in the current regime (2026–) the KOSPI-follows-SOX link is not deterministic, and overlapping signals (short-surge, foreign flow autocorrelation) do not stack into a reliable single-cause prediction. The KOSDAQ call of ‘flat to slightly lower’ was marked a partial hit at +0.39%.