Today’s Calls
Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexA U.S. equity index tracking approximately 30 semiconductor design and manufacturing companies, widely used as a real-time barometer of global chip-sector sentiment.Because Samsung Electronics and SK hynix together account for a large share of KOSPI market cap, overnight SOX moves are among the most-watched external signals before the Korean open. –2.94%, Chip Short Surge: Can Tuesday’s Seasonal Edge Hold?
Tuesday, August 11 (2026) opens under the shadow of a 2.94% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on Monday — the sharpest pressure point for a market where semiconductors account for the heaviest index weight.Against that, Tuesday carries the most constructive day-of-week profile in the current regime (2026): a 72% advance rate and a mean change of +0.27% across 29 sessions — though the crash-precursor score sits at 3 out of 4, and foreign investors have net-sold KOSPI for the past week.
Today’s Calls
Where the day’s calls are placed by number — grading starts with the Early Session edition
Two prior predictions on record for today — KOSPI –1.5%/–2.5% and KOSDAQ flat/–1.5% — await scoring at market close
Two predictions were on record for Tuesday, August 11 (2026) — KOSPI down 1.5%–2.5% and KOSDAQ flat-to-down 0.5%–1.5% — both filed at the Monday 07:30 opening edition. Neither has been scored yet; scoring is provisional until the final edition (20:00 KST) confirms closing prices.
No intraday or sector-level predictions were filed for today’s session; the two market-level calls above exhaust the prediction log.
The world overnight — how the US session ended
A window on what happened in the US market overnight
SOX –2.94% leads U.S. weakness; Wall Street Korea call-score sits at 54% over 28 tracked calls (2026)
Wall Street’s composite call-score for Korean equities stands at a 54% hit rate over 28 calls (2026 tracked period): Morgan Stanley 3/4, Goldman Sachs 3/5, Nomura 4/6, Citi 2/3, JPMorgan 0/3.Monday’s U.S. session ended with S&P 500 at 7,753.11 (–0.06%), Nasdaq at 26,605.36 (–0.32%), and the SOX at 11,993.86 (–2.94%); in the current 2026 regime, Korea has tracked an overnight SOX move of this magnitude (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) on the following day in 39 of 139 year-to-date sessions — directional follow-through is possible but is not the modal outcome.
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
SOX fell 2.94% on Monday; Korea has followed U.S. semi moves in 39 of 139 sessions year-to-date (2026)
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.94% on Monday (Aug 10, 2026) while the S&P 500 slipped 0.06% and the Nasdaq lost 0.32%.The Korea-listed EWY ETF — a foreign-investor proxy for Korean equities — fell 1.79% on the same session, tracking the semiconductor-led weakness rather than the broader U.S. tape.
Year-to-date through August 11 (2026), Korea has followed the prior night’s U.S. moves in 39 of 139 sessions, the U.S. has followed Korea in 30, both moved in the same direction in 46, and 24 sessions showed no correlation — meaning a single-direction causal read on any given day is supported in fewer than half of all observed cases.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
Night window —EWYofficial indicator
A window on what overnight futures foreshadow for the next day’s open
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Nikkei CME futures all slide overnight; NQ –0.48% leads the move
As of 05:00 KST on August 11 (2026), S&P 500 futures (ES) traded at 7,777.25 (–0.13% from Monday’s 15:00 KST reference), Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) at 29,764.25 (–0.48%), and Nikkei 225 CME futures (yen-denominated) at 66,705 (–0.57%).These are CME-listed proxies for global risk appetite, not Korean overnight futures; all three are pointing modestly lower, consistent with a cautious open, though the year-to-date data show Korea’s follow-through on overnight U.S. futures signals is directional in fewer than half of observed sessions.
Pre-open08:00~09:00 — single-price auction (open/close)The single-price auction window (before the open and just before the close), where orders are pooled and matched at once.When large volume crowds into this window, a gap is created.forecast
A window on where the pre-open auction is pulling the opening price
Auction opens against SOX –2.94% and EWY –1.79%; gap direction and sector rotation are the morning’s first signals
At 07:30, the simultaneous-bid auction (08:30–09:00 KST) has not yet opened; the gap direction at the open will be the first read on how domestic participants are pricing Monday’s SOX drop and EWY’s –1.79% move.Watch whether semiconductor-linked names gap down to confirm the SOX signal, or whether other sectors — defense/aerospace (+24.7%p one-week relative strength) and power/electric (+10.0%p) — absorb rotation flows and limit index-level damage; in the current regime (2026), the rotation pattern (semiconductors –2%+ / defensives +2%p+) has resolved higher three sessions out in 70% of 30 events.
Previous-Day Review
A window that retraces what happened in the previous session
Monday session data incomplete — market breadth and top-volume rankings not collected for August 10 (2026)
The Silmari Fear Gauge
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Sentiment gauge holds below the 65th-percentile trigger; crash-precursor score at 3 of 4
Today’s sentiment gauge reading is unavailable — the composite score for August 11 (2026) has not yet been calculated at this hour.The most recent confirmed inputs are: the ADR signal is active (flagged on July 28, 2026, U.S. session, –16.7%); the selling-acceleration signal is active based on August 7 and August 10 confirmed flows; short-surge and sentiment-90+ signals are both inactive. The crash-precursor composite reads 3 out of a possible 4.
In the current regime (2026), across 97 short-surge events, the KOSPI averaged –1.91% five sessions later, with a down-probability of 55% and a baseline excess of –4.74 percentage points versus the regime baseline of +2.83%. Over the most recent six months, the average five-day return after a surge is –2.08% with a 57% down-probability across 92 events.
Today is not a scheduled macro trigger day based on the data available at 07:30; no central bank decisions or major data releases appear in the collected event calendar for August 11 (2026). The active signals are flow- and breadth-derived, not event-driven.
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won strengthened 0.32% to ₩1,417.69 per dollar on Monday; dollar index edged up 0.21% to 99.81
The won closed Monday at ₩1,417.69 per dollar, strengthening 0.32% from the prior session even as the dollar index edged up 0.21% to 99.81.The yen cross stands at 8.88 won per yen, a reference point for Japan-Korea relative positioning; the Nikkei 225 futures (CME, yen-denominated) traded at 66,705 overnight, down 0.57% from Monday’s KST close.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ after-hours breadth skewed bullish — 480 advancing vs. 112 declining on NXT snapshot
Warning
A window flagging in advance where today’s session calls for caution
Crash-precursor score at 3/4 with SOX –2.94% and four straight sessions of KOSPI program net-selling
The crash-precursor score stands at 3 out of 4, with two signals active: the ADR flag (triggered on the U.S. session of July 28, 2026, at –16.7%) and the selling-acceleration flag (based on August 7 and August 10 confirmed flow data).In the current regime (2026), after a short-surge event on Samsung Electronics or SK hynix, the five-day forward distribution has been negative in 55% of 97 cases; the July 27 Samsung surge (53.6×) was followed by a –13.39% one-day return and –18.50% three-day return — those are single events, not a base rate, and are cited as samples only.Non-program selling on KOSPI reached ₩1,540.0bn on Monday, and foreign futures positioning flipped to net-buy (+2,205 contracts on August 10) after three net-sell sessions — divergence between futures and cash direction has historically been a signal worth monitoring, per the data definition.