Today’s Calls
iShares MSCI South Korea ETFA US-listed exchange-traded fund that tracks large- and mid-cap Korean equities and trades during New York hours, giving an overnight price signal for the KOSPI before it opens.Because EWY trades while Korean markets are closed, its overnight move is widely used as a pre-open directional indicator for the KOSPI. −2.97% While Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexA US index tracking the performance of major semiconductor companies; because Korean large-caps such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are deeply integrated into the global chip supply chain, the SOX is a key overnight reference for Korean semiconductor stocks.The SOX–KOSPI tracking relationship is one of the two dominant cross-market signals monitored in this letter’s mutual-follow framework. Holds — Will Foreigners Extend Selling on Friday?
Korea’s Advance-Decline RatioThe ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks in a given session; a reading well below 1 (or expressed as a large negative percentage) signals broad-based selling pressure across the market.An extreme ADR reading is one of the four sub-components in today’s crash-precursor score, contributing 2 of the 3 points currently in force. proxy EWY dropped 2.97% on Thursday, August 6 (2026), even as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index edged up 0.33% and the Nasdaq was nearly flat at −0.06% — a divergence that leaves the KOSPI open with a meaningful gap to close.Friday’s session (2026) carries an additional layer: the won-dollar rate at 1,422.89 and the crash-precursor score at 3 (out of a possible score set that includes ADR and short-surge signals) both warrant monitoring before the open, even as no single cause can be assigned to today’s setup.
Today’s Calls
Where the day’s calls are placed by number — grading starts with the Early Session edition
Two Index Calls on File for Friday, August 7 (2026) — KOSPI −0.5% to −2.0%, KOSDAQ −0.5% to +1.0%
Two predictions were logged for Friday, August 7 (2026) — KOSPI in the range of −0.5% to −2.0%, and KOSDAQ in the range of −0.5% to +1.0 % — and will be scored against today’s closing prints; no outcome is available at the 07:30 open.
No intra-sector or single-stock prediction was filed for today; the data available before the open did not provide sufficient basis beyond index-level calls.
The world overnight — how the US session ended
A window on what happened in the US market overnight
S&P 500 −0.18%, Nasdaq −0.06%, SOX +0.33% on August 6 (2026) — EWY diverges with a 2.97% drop
Overnight US market commentary — data could not be collected
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
EWY fell 2.97% on Thursday, August 6 (2026) as S&P 500 slipped 0.18% and the SOX added 0.33%
On the night of August 6 (2026), the S&P 500 dipped 0.18% to 7,709.96 and the Nasdaq edged down 0.06% to 26,348.35, while the SOX added 0.33% to 12,048.69.EWY — the US-listed Korea ETF that trades during New York hours — fell 2.97% to 164.12, a sharper move than either Wall Street benchmark, suggesting Korea-specific selling pressure beyond what the chip index implies.
In the 2026 year-to-date sample (n=139 sessions), the KOSPI followed the prior night’s SOX on 39 days, US markets followed the KOSPI on 30 days, both moved together on 46 days, and neither tracked the other on 24 days.The data shows no single dominant direction of influence; on days when the SOX and EWY diverge — as they did on August 6 (2026) — the subsequent KOSPI open has historically reflected the EWY signal more often, though the sample for that specific sub-case is not separately tabulated in today’s data.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
Night window —EWYofficial indicator
A window on what overnight futures foreshadow for the next day’s open
No Korean futures data available at 07:30 — EWY at 164.12 is the closest pre-open proxy
Night futures commentary — data could not be collected
Pre-open08:00~09:00 — single-price auction (open/close)The single-price auction window (before the open and just before the close), where orders are pooled and matched at once.When large volume crowds into this window, a gap is created.forecast
A window on where the pre-open auction is pulling the opening price
Won at 1,422.89, Dollar Index at 99.96, 10-Year Treasury at 4.67% as of August 6 (2026) — Korea open benchmarks set
Pre-open auction commentary — data could not be collected
Previous-Day Review
A window that retraces what happened in the previous session
Prior Session Flow: Foreigners Net Sold ₩863.0bn on KOSDAQ Over the Past Week Through August 7 (2026)
The Silmari Fear Gauge
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Sentiment gauge data unavailable for Friday, August 7 (2026) — prior session’s crash-precursor score holds at 3
Today’s sentiment-gauge composite is unavailable — the underlying series requires same-day inputs that are not yet collected at 07:30.The most recent confirmed signal is the crash-precursor score of 3: ADR contributed 2 points (based on the July 28 (2026) US-session reading of −16.7%) and short-surge contributed 1 point (short-balance date: July 23 (2026)); the sell-acceleration and high-sentiment signals each scored 0.
Because today’s composite percentile is unavailable, a regime-matched past-sample path cannot be cited — the gauge will be populated in the midday or closing edition once session data are confirmed.
No scheduled macro trigger (central-bank decision, index rebalancing, or options expiry) is flagged in the available data for Friday, August 7 (2026); the session is not designated a trigger day, though the elevated ADR and short-surge sub-scores raise the ambient signal level.
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won firms to 1,422.89 per dollar on Thursday, August 6 (2026), gaining 0.39% on the day
The won closed at 1,422.89 per dollar on August 6 (2026), strengthening 0.39% on the session even as the dollar index ticked up 0.28% to 99.96.The won’s modest firmness against a slightly stronger dollar provides a marginal buffer against foreign-selling pressure at the open, but the quarter-to-date foreign net selling position of ₩113.83tn on KOSPI remains the more structurally significant currency context.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ flow data not yet collected for Friday, August 7 (2026); one-week foreign net selling stands at ₩863.0bn
Warning
A window flagging in advance where today’s session calls for caution
Crash-Precursor Score at 3 and EWY Down 2.97% — Multiple Risk Signals Active Before Friday’s Open
The crash-precursor score of 3 is in force heading into Friday’s open, carried by an ADR reading of −16.7% (July 28, 2026 US session) and a short-surge signal (reference date: July 23, 2026).In the current regime (2026~, n=90), short-surge events have been followed by an average 5-day return of −2.13% with a 54% down-day probability — versus the 2026 baseline of +2.43%, an excess return of −4.56%p.EWY’s 2.97% decline while the SOX held positive adds a divergence signal that has, in past samples, corresponded to asymmetric opening pressure on KOSPI — but with multiple signals active simultaneously, no single factor should be treated as the sole driver of today’s session.