Today’s Verdict
KOSPI sheds −0.60% as foreigners sell ₩865bn; energy and defense absorb the rotation
The KOSPI closed Friday, August 7 (2026) at 6,258.77, down 0.60%, after swinging across a 256.87-point intraday range that took the index from a morning high of 6,415.60 to a mid-session low of 6,158.73 before a partial recovery.Foreigners were net sellers of ₩865.1bn on KOSPI and ₩252.2bn on KOSDAQ; retail investors stepped in as the primary absorber on both markets while institutional investors were modestly net positive on KOSPI.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 07/31 | 1 month ago 07/08 | 1 quarter ago 05/08 | 6 months ago 02/06 | 1 year ago 08/07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,258.77 | −0.60% | −5.10% | −13.63% | −16.53% | +22.98% | +93.91% |
| KOSDAQ | 798.81 | −0.36% | +10.98% | +1.76% | −33.86% | −26.09% | −0.87% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
Morning calls: KOSPI direction hit (−0.60% inside −0.5% to −2.0%); KOSDAQ flagged as partial miss (−0.36% inside range but directionally leaning positive)
Two predictions were logged at 07:30: P1 (KOSPI, decline −0.5% to −2.0%) returned a hit at an actual −0.60%; P2 (KOSDAQ, flat to slightly positive −0.5% to +1.0%) is recorded as a partial miss — the actual −0.36% is inside the numeric band but the qualitative lean toward ‘flat-to-positive’ did not match a day when KOSDAQ also closed in the red.
No sector-level or individual-stock predictions were submitted for today, so no sector verdict is issued.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
Intraday path headline — tally to follow
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
Foreigners dumped ₩865.1bn on KOSPI today; retail investors absorbed ₩267.5bn on the opposite side
| Investor group | Today | 1W 08.03–08.07 | 1M 07.08–08.07 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | −₩865.1bn | −₩5.90tn | −₩3.28tn | −₩107.99tn |
| Retail investors | +₩267.5bn | +₩7.89tn | +₩1.76tn | +₩90.13tn |
| Pension funds | −₩116.6bn | −₩70.1bn | +₩1.14tn | −₩3.41tn |
| Investment firms | +₩601.9bn | −₩1.49tn | −₩1.41tn | +₩22.26tn |
Foreigners were the day’s dominant sellers, posting net sales of ₩865.1bn on KOSPI — extending their one-week net selling to ₩5,901.6bn and their quarterly net selling to ₩107,994.1bn.Within the day’s foreign selling, Samsung Electronics saw ₩388.4bn of foreign net outflow even as the stock gained a fractional 0.22%.
Retail investors net bought ₩267.5bn on KOSPI today, countering foreign selling as they have done across the week (one-week net buy: ₩7,890.8bn).In the 2026 regime (146 trading days), the same-day correlation between foreign net selling and retail net buying on KOSPI runs at −0.846 — meaning retail reliably absorbs what foreigners shed on the same session.
Institutional investors (investment trust category) were net buyers of ₩601.9bn on KOSPI today, partially offsetting foreign sales.The National Pension Service (pension funds) was a net seller of ₩116.6bn on KOSPI today, though its one-month running total remains in net-buy territory at ₩1,141.5bn.
On KOSDAQ, retail was the sole net buyer today at ₩340.2bn, while foreigners sold ₩252.2bn and institutional investors sold ₩104.4bn.Over one month, KOSDAQ institutional investors have net bought ₩1,409.8bn — contrasting with their KOSPI one-month net buy of ₩1,407.1bn — while KOSDAQ foreigners remain net sellers of ₩1,548.5bn over the same period.
The quarterly (May 8–August 7, 2026) picture shows foreigners net sold ₩107,994.1bn on KOSPI while retail net bought ₩90,129.8bn — a structural gap that has persisted across the quarter.Institutional investors (investment trust) accumulated a quarterly net buy of ₩22,258.3bn on KOSPI, acting as the second-largest absorber of foreign supply after retail.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Sentiment gauge holds ‘Anxiety’ at 1.227 — volatility percentile at 97th, leverage ratio at 97th
The sentiment gauge closed at 1.227, placing today in the ‘Anxiety’ stage (the second of four bands, defined by expanding-window percentiles of 10/35/65/90).Two components drove the reading: vol20 at 6.43 (97th percentile) and leverage share at 13.08% (97th percentile); the panic-buy-on-down metric (pbuy_down) registered at the 71st percentile.
The data does not supply a sample count of prior sessions that hit exactly the same composite score of 1.227; the historical regime distributions are available only for the component percentiles individually.What is available: in the 2026 regime (expanding window), the notrigger_streak component — counting days since the last circuit-breaker event — stood at the 85th percentile, meaning today had a relatively long run without a formal trigger.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.16 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 71(top 29%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 6.43 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 97(top 3%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 85(top 15%) |
| Leveraged-ETF share of turnover | 13.08 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 97(top 3%) |
Today was not a trigger day: the sell-acceleration signal (based on August 5–6 confirmed flows) is scored at 0, and the sentiment-90+ flag is also 0.The two active signals — ADR (derived from the July 28 US session ADR of −16.7%) and the short-surge flag — are both based on data that predates today’s session, meaning today’s actual price action added no new trigger.
On days when the gauge is in the Anxiety band but no trigger fires, the index can still move materially — today’s 4.17% intraday range illustrates that elevated volatility (vol20 at the 97th percentile) does not require a discrete catalyst to generate wide swings.The data does not provide a base rate for intraday ranges on non-trigger Anxiety days, so no probability can be quoted.
The gauge is built from eight weighted inputs: 5-day credit balance change (weight 0.135), margin loan balance (0.18), panic-buying-on-down days (0.09), short-selling surge flag (0.18), 20-day realized volatility (0.225), days since last trigger (0.09), and leveraged-fund share of turnover (0.10).Of the eight, three were not collected today (credit5d, margin, short_surge), and a news-fear keyword count is logged separately as a reference figure only — it is not included in the composite score.
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
Short-selling surge base rate: in 90 current-regime cases (2026~), average 5-day return was −2.13% with a 54% down probability
The short-selling surge definition used here is a 5-day stock-level short-interest increase of 2.0× or more (minimum 50,000 shares outstanding short); 351 such events have been logged since 2018.In the current regime (2026~, n = 90), the average 5-day return after a surge event was −2.13% with a 54% down-probability — below the regime baseline of +2.45%, implying an excess of −4.58 percentage points.The most recent flagged names include SK hynix (surge date July 21, 16.4×; subsequent 5-day return −15.58%) and Samsung Electronics (July 21, 4.4×; 5-day return −15.06%) — both realized outcomes consistent with the negative skew of the current-regime distribution.
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Energy & Chemicals surged +7.65% and Defense & Aerospace +4.12% as money rotated out of Semiconductors −1.60% and AI/Software −1.48%
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | −1.60% | Selling | −6.90%p | Samsung Electronics+0.22%· SK hynix−4.88%· SK Square−3.20%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics+3.99%· Jusung Engineering−4.20% |
| AI & Software | −1.48% | Selling | +6.10%p | NAVER −7.08%· Kakao+4.18%· DearU−1.55% |
| Power & Electrical | +0.02% | Selling | +13.90%p | Doosan Enerbility+0.92% · LS ELECTRIC −0.74%· HD Hyundai Electric+0.13%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries+4.58%· Gaon Cable−4.77% |
| Electronics & Components | +4.07% | Selling | +19.20%p | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)−1.16%· LG Energy Solution+4.35%· Samsung SDI+7.49%· LG Electronics+5.59% |
| Autos | −0.81% | Buying | +7.00%p | Hyundai Motor−1.13%· Kia+0.97%· Hyundai Mobis−2.26% |
| Defense & Aerospace | +4.12% | Buying | +24.70%p | Hanwha Aerospace+4.08%· LIG Defense & Aerospace+5.56%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)+2.73% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | +0.02% | Buying | +10.00%p | HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)−0.38%· Hanwha Ocean−1.43% · HMM +1.87% |
| Financials | +1.03% | Selling | +9.40%p | KB Financial Group+2.51%· Shinhan Financial Group+2.42%· Hana Financial Group+1.05%· Mirae Asset Securities−1.88% |
| Bio & Healthcare | +2.35% | Buying | +9.90%p | Samsung Biologics+2.77%· Celltrion+2.21%· Alteogen+3.92%· Kolon TissueGene+0.51% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | −1.76% | — | +21.30%p | Hyundai E&C−2.40%· Daewoo E&C−2.73%· DL E&C−0.14% |
| Energy & Chemicals | +7.65% | — | +13.20%p | SK Innovation+10.77%· LG Chem+5.75% · S-Oil +10.17%· Lotte Chemical+3.92% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | −0.20% | Buying | +11.90%p | SK Telecom−3.18%· HYBE+2.38%· CJ CheilJedang+0.74% · JYP Ent. −0.74% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
SK hynix led KOSPI turnover at ₩7,254.6bn while falling −4.88%; Samsung Electronics held at ₩4,791.6bn with a fractional +0.22% gain
SK hynix dominated KOSPI turnover at ₩7,254.6bn despite falling 4.88%; Samsung Electronics was second at ₩4,791.6bn while posting only a 0.22% gain — the gap between the two largest names in volume reflects the divergence in their price behavior on the day.Hanwha Solutions (+11.51%, ₩693.7bn) and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (+3.99%, ₩1,137.7bn) were notable on the buy side within the top-ten turnover list.
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | ₩1,422,000 | −4.88% | ₩7.25tn | −₩69.8bn | +₩47.5bn | +₩117.6bn | −₩39.8bn | +₩271.1bn |
| Samsung Electronics | ₩231,000 | +0.22% | ₩4.79tn | −₩387.6bn | −₩2.8bn | +₩28.4bn | −₩102.7bn | +₩143.0bn |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,278,000 | +3.99% | ₩1.14tn | −₩28.3bn | +₩85.7bn | +₩68.5bn | +₩3.5bn | −₩57.4bn |
| Hanwha Solutions | ₩33,900 | +11.51% | ₩693.7bn | −₩37.4bn | +₩47.2bn | +₩12.9bn | +₩15.3bn | −₩10.0bn |
| SK Square | ₩939,000 | −3.20% | ₩614.5bn | +₩105.2bn | −₩108.5bn | −₩18.9bn | −₩67.2bn | +₩3.7bn |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩170,100 | −1.16% | ₩479.2bn | −₩79.4bn | +₩14.5bn | +₩3.2bn | +₩6.3bn | +₩63.3bn |
| NAVER | ₩210,000 | −7.08% | ₩373.5bn | −₩60.9bn | −₩50.9bn | −₩0.3bn | −₩20.4bn | +₩109.0bn |
| Samsung SDI | ₩459,000 | +7.49% | ₩312.7bn | −₩11.9bn | +₩61.4bn | +₩34.9bn | +₩18.5bn | −₩49.8bn |
| OCI Holdings | ₩272,500 | +11.68% | ₩294.1bn | −₩10.8bn | +₩12.0bn | +₩14.2bn | −₩7.1bn | +₩0.9bn |
| SK eternix | ₩50,500 | −8.18% | ₩279.0bn | −₩24.2bn | −₩15.3bn | −₩5.0bn | +₩0.6bn | +₩41.1bn |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
OCI Holdings +11.68% and Hanwha Solutions +11.51% topped KOSPI gainers; NAVER −7.08% and SK Eternix −8.18% led declines
On KOSPI (trades ≥ ₩10bn), the top gainer was Hyein (+29.89%) and the top decliner was Lotte Shopping (−12.93%); OCI Holdings (+11.68%) and Hanwha Solutions (+11.51%) were among the leaders, while NAVER (−7.08%) and SK Eternix (−8.18%) led losses on meaningful volume.On KOSDAQ, Dongwha Enterprise (+30.00%) and Korea Advanced Materials (+29.89%) topped the advance list; Daedong Gear (−22.21%) was the session’s steepest decliner on that market by the filtered ranking.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ closed −0.36% at 798.81, outperforming KOSPI’s −0.60% as biotech and fiber-optic names provided partial offset
KOSDAQ closed at 798.81, down 0.36%, outperforming KOSPI’s 0.60% decline by 24 basis points — consistent with the pattern noted in the morning call of KOSPI-KOSDAQ decoupling driven by biotech and fiber-optic flows.The intraday range of 38.20 points (4.92%) was proportionally wider than KOSPI’s 4.17%, reflecting the smaller-cap market’s higher volatility on a stress day; both markets hit their intraday lows simultaneously at 10:40.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Biotech +2.35% and Defense +4.12% absorbed flows rotating away from Semiconductors — a pattern logged in 29 current-regime sessions
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+2.34%· 72% up · 29 past cases |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
Today partially fits the defensive-rotation template — biotech gained +2.35% (Alteogen +3.92%, Samsung Biologics +2.77%) and defense gained +4.12% while semiconductors fell −1.60% — but the semiconductor decline did not reach the −2.0% threshold required for a formal classification under the data’s rotation definition.In the 2026 regime, sessions that did meet the formal threshold (n = 29) showed a 3-day average KOSPI return of +2.34% with a 72% up-probability; today’s outcome against that template cannot be formally counted in the sample.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
Crash-precursor score stands at 3 out of a possible weighted total — ADR and short-surge signals are active, sell-acceleration and sentiment-90+ are not
The crash-precursor score is 3, with two of four sub-signals active: ADR (sourced from the July 28 US session reading of −16.7%) and short-surge (short-interest data as of July 23, reflecting T+2 disclosure lag).The sell-acceleration signal uses confirmed flow data from August 5–6 and scored 0 today; the sentiment-90+ flag also scored 0, meaning the composite score of 3 reflects lagged inputs rather than today’s confirmed data — a limitation to keep in mind when reading the total.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
US open to inherit a mixed picture: SOX flat, 10-year yield at 4.67%, and Korea’s tech-to-value rotation as context
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
SOX was flat (+0.33%) overnight yet KOSPI fell −0.60%, suggesting domestic and overnight factors dominated rather than US chip-market direction
Overnight (Aug 6 US session), SOX posted +0.33% — a move below the ±0.5% threshold used in the mutual-tracking framework — meaning today’s KOSPI session does not formally count as a Korea-follows-US chip day.KOSPI fell 0.60% against that flat SOX backdrop, suggesting domestic-specific factors (SK hynix ADR overhang, foreign selling momentum, Friday positioning) were the primary drivers rather than US overnight direction.
In 2026 year-to-date (139 sessions), Korea followed US markets in 39 sessions, the US followed Korea in 30, both moved in the same direction in 46, and 24 showed no tracking.The 2026 data shows bi-directional and independent moves account for the majority of sessions combined (70 out of 139), meaning same-direction co-movement is the exception rather than the rule in the current regime.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won strengthened to ₩1,415.48 per dollar, −0.40% on the day, as the dollar index slipped to 99.92
The won strengthened to ₩1,415.48 per dollar on August 7 (2026), a move of −0.40% (won appreciation), while the dollar index (DXY) dipped 0.05% to 99.92.The yen/won cross stood at 8.92, and the Nikkei 225 closed at 65,606.71 (−0.12%) — both regional reference points showing contained moves relative to Korea’s intraday volatility.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.67%, up 1.15% from the prior session, maintaining pressure on long-duration valuations
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.67% as of August 6 (2026), up 1.15% from the prior session — the most recent confirmed reading available at publication time.Gold closed at $4,379.10 per ounce and copper at $6.68 per pound; the EWY Korea ETF (a proxy for foreign-investor perception of Korean equities) stood at 164.12, down 2.97% as of August 6.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
No brokerage reports were collected for today’s edition; Wall Street scorecard sits at 54% accuracy over 28 calls
No brokerage reports were collected for today’s edition — the data pipeline does not retain same-day research notes retroactively.
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
The Wall Street scorecard tracks three-session directional calls from nine brokerages; a call is marked correct if the stated direction matches the KOSPI’s actual move over the specified horizon.Current aggregate accuracy: 15 hits out of 28 calls (54%) across Morgan Stanley, Macquarie, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Citi, JP Morgan, Nomura, Barclays, and Bernstein — with Nomura leading at 4/6 and JP Morgan at 0/3.
Event calendar items logged today span sovereign-AI and Korea trade headlines — see the event-density table below; these overlap with themes covered in the sector and flows blocks above.
Individual stock detail for all names mentioned in today’s edition — prices, turnover, and net foreign flows — is available in the daily prices table within the data layer.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
The morning call on KOSPI (−0.5% to −2.0%) hit at −0.60% — the SK hynix ADR signal and Friday foreign-selling pattern both tracked correctly. The KOSDAQ call (−0.5% to +1.0%) was marginally wide at −0.36%, landing inside the range but the directional read of ‘flat-to-positive’ missed the fact that KOSDAQ also closed red, however modestly — a reminder that ‘less bad than KOSPI’ is not the same as resilient.