Today’s Verdict
Foreigners Buy ₩2.11tn, KOSPI Surges +3.56% to 6,813 — KOSDAQ Lags at +0.29%
The KOSPI closed at 6,813.34 on Thursday, August 13 (2026), gaining +3.56% as foreigners net bought ₩2.11tn — their third consecutive session of net purchases on the index.The move was concentrated in large-cap semiconductors; KOSDAQ, which closed at 861.37 (+0.29%), and the KOSPI’s own breadth — 333 advancers vs. 533 decliners — both signalled that the rally was narrow rather than broad.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 08/06 | 1 month ago 07/14 | 1 quarter ago 05/14 | 6 months ago 02/12 | 1 year ago 08/13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,813.34 | +3.56% | +8.21% | −0.63% | −14.63% | +23.38% | +111.31% |
| KOSDAQ | 861.37 | +0.29% | +7.45% | +9.87% | −27.68% | −23.50% | +5.81% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
Thursday, August 13 (2026): the KOSPI call was a partial miss — direction correct, magnitude undershot — while the KOSDAQ call missed outright.
The morning KOSPI call (P1: +0.8–2.0%) caught the direction but undershot badly — the actual print of +3.56% was above the forecast ceiling; verdict is △ (partial).The KOSDAQ call (P2: +0.5–1.5%) missed on both magnitude and character: the index closed at +0.29%, well below the lower bound, as foreign money concentrated on KOSPI heavyweights rather than spreading to the second board; verdict is ✗.
No sector-level or individual-stock predictions were logged for August 13 (2026); only the two index-level calls above were on record and have been graded.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
KOSPI opened at 6,801.09, peaked at 6,895.63 at 09:10, troughed at 6,748.13 at 15:03, and closed at 6,813.34 — an intraday range of 147.50 points (2.19%).
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
Foreigners net bought ₩2.11tn on KOSPI today, driving the index up +3.56% to close at 6,813.34.
| Investor group | Today | 1 week 08.07~08.13 | 1 month 07.14~08.13 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | +₩2.11tn | +₩2.64tn | +₩1.74tn | −₩87.04tn |
| Retail investors | −₩2.74tn | −₩4.84tn | −₩5.09tn | +₩69.62tn |
| Pension funds | −₩64.1bn | −₩396.3bn | +₩914.0bn | −₩2.93tn |
| Investment firms | +₩508.2bn | +₩2.23tn | +₩320.2bn | +₩20.51tn |
Foreigners net bought ₩2,110.2bn on KOSPI today — their second consecutive session above ₩2tn — bringing the one-week running total to ₩2,643.1bn.In the 2026 regime, the same-day correlation between foreign KOSPI net buying and index returns runs at 0.514 (lag-0), the highest same-day coefficient in the tracked investor set, making foreigners the dominant price-setting force on today’s session.
Retail investors net sold ₩2,741.0bn on KOSPI — absorbing the foreign bid — and net bought ₩256.5bn on KOSDAQ, where they were the only net buyer among tracked investor groups.In the 2026 regime data, the foreign-to-retail correlation at lag-0 is −0.848, meaning the two groups trade in opposite directions on the same day in nearly every session; today is consistent with that pattern.
Investment trusts net bought ₩508.2bn on KOSPI and net sold ₩22.6bn on KOSDAQ.The National Pension Service was a modest net seller: −₩64.1bn on KOSPI and −₩19.3bn on KOSDAQ — a pattern consistent with the quarterly picture, where the NPS has net sold ₩292.6bn on KOSPI over the past three months.
On KOSDAQ, the flow picture was the reverse of KOSPI: foreigners net sold ₩136.2bn, investment trusts net sold ₩22.6bn, and the NPS net sold ₩19.3bn — leaving retail as the lone net buyer at +₩256.5bn.The divergence between KOSPI (+3.56%) and KOSDAQ (+0.29%) is directly legible in this flow split: institutional and foreign capital concentrated on the large-cap board.
Over the past quarter (May 14 – August 13, 2026), foreigners have net sold ₩87.04tn on KOSPI while retail investors net bought ₩69.62tn — a structural divergence that today’s single session only partially offsets.Investment trusts are the one institutional group showing sustained quarterly net buying on KOSPI (+₩20.51tn), while the NPS remains a net seller at −₩2.93tn over the same window.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
The sentiment gauge holds at 0.744 — rated Neutral — as realized volatility dominates a score built on only four of eight confirmed inputs today.
The sentiment gauge closed at 0.744, rated Neutral — unchanged in stage from yesterday.Of the eight component inputs, only two are confirmed for today: 20-day realized volatility at 6.04 (94th expanding percentile) and leverage-ETF share at 9.9% (72nd percentile).Credit balance (T+1 lag, last confirmed at 7.04% on August 12) and margin ratio (T+1, 0.6 on August 12) carry prior-day values; the short-surge component uses the August 10 short-balance filing (1.49×, T+2 publication lag).
The data does not supply a historical count of sessions that sat in the Neutral band (score 0.35–0.65 per the expanding-percentile thresholds at 35/65); the gauge’s time-series is available but a conditional forward-return table for this stage has not yet been collected for this edition.What the component data does say: a vol-20 reading at the 94th percentile has historically been associated with elevated realized risk in the current 2026 regime, but the sell-acceleration sub-signal (pbuy_down) and the no-trigger streak are both zero today — a bullish sign within the gauge framework.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 70(top 30%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 6.04 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 94(top 6%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 85(top 15%) |
| Leveraged-ETF share of turnover | 9.9 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 72(top 28%) |
Today is not a trigger day: the index rose +3.56%, so the panic-buying-on-down-days (pbuy_down) sub-signal is marked “not applicable” and the no-trigger streak resets to zero.The crash-precursor score is 3/max, with the ADR signal (reference date: July 28, 2026, US session −16.7%) and the short-surge signal (reference date: August 10, 2026) both active, while sell-acceleration and extreme-sentiment are at zero.
Because today is an up day, the precursor score’s active components reflect conditions from prior sessions rather than today’s price action — the score is a trailing composite, not a same-day alarm.On days when the precursor score sits at 3 and the market nonetheless rises sharply, the residual signal most worth watching is the ADR sub-signal, which tracks whether a large US drawdown has been fully digested by Korean positioning.
The sentiment gauge is built from up to eight weighted inputs: (1) five-day credit-balance change (weight 0.135), (2) margin-loan ratio (0.180), (3) panic-buying on down days (0.090), (4) short-surge indicator (0.180), (5) 20-day realized volatility (0.225), (6) no-trigger-decline streak (0.090), and (7) leverage-ETF turnover share (0.100).Each input is converted to an expanding-window percentile (look-ahead prevented) and combined into the composite score; stage thresholds are set at the 10th, 35th, 65th, and 90th percentiles of the full history, yielding five bands from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.The judgment is each reader’s own.
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
The crash-precursor score stands at 3 of a possible maximum, with two of four sub-signals active and two flagging elevated risk.
The most recent short-balance data available is dated August 10, 2026 (T+2 publication lag); today’s short positions cannot yet be confirmed.Among the 372 short-surge events tracked since 2018 (defined as short balance ≥2.0× vs. five sessions prior, on stocks with at least 50,000 shares short), the five-day forward return in the current 2026 regime (n=105) averaged −0.87% with a 51% down-probability — versus a regime baseline of +2.98%, implying an excess return of −3.85 percentage points after a surge signal in this regime.Recent individual surge events on record: Samsung Electronics preferred (code 005935) surged 3.1× on August 6 and 2.1× on August 7; LG Innotek (011070) surged 4.4× on August 6 and 2.8× on August 7 — subsequent 1-day returns on those events ranged from −0.36% to +1.12%, a mixed picture that illustrates why the aggregate base rate is the more reliable reference than any single case.
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Semiconductors led all twelve sectors with a +6.38% composite gain; Consumer & Entertainment was the day’s laggard at −2.88%.
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | +6.38% | Buying | +8.10%p | Samsung Electronics+4.89%· SK hynix+5.92%· SK Square+9.08%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics+12.58%· Jusung Engineering+3.05% |
| AI & Software | +1.65% | Buying | −8.00%p | NAVER +5.10%· Kakao+1.39%· DearU−1.54% |
| Power & Electrical | +2.24% | Buying | −2.50%p | Doosan Enerbility+0.75% · LS ELECTRIC +2.64%· HD Hyundai Electric+0.38%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries+4.32%· Gaon Cable+3.09% |
| Electronics & Components | +0.98% | Selling | +9.70%p | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)+0.91%· LG Energy Solution+1.95%· Samsung SDI+0.31%· LG Electronics+0.73% |
| Autos | +2.01% | Buying | −3.60%p | Hyundai Motor+2.20%· Kia+1.33%· Hyundai Mobis+2.51% |
| Defense & Aerospace | +4.55% | Buying | +4.20%p | Hanwha Aerospace+2.51%· LIG Defense & Aerospace+6.22%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)+4.93% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | −1.04% | Buying | −8.20%p | Hanwha Ocean+0.67%· HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)−2.37% · HMM −1.41% |
| Financials | +2.66% | Buying | −10.20%p | KB Financial Group+1.27%· Shinhan Financial Group+2.70%· Hana Financial Group+2.42%· Mirae Asset Securities+4.25% |
| Bio & Healthcare | +5.22% | Buying | −4.90%p | Samsung Biologics+0.97%· Celltrion+0.00%· Alteogen+0.00%· Kolon TissueGene+19.91% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | +0.95% | Selling | −7.20%p | Hyundai E&C−0.09%· Daewoo E&C+3.20%· DL E&C−0.27% |
| Energy & Chemicals | −0.46% | — | +4.60%p | SK Innovation−0.57%· LG Chem+0.00% · S-Oil −0.42%· Lotte Chemical−0.86% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | −2.88% | Selling | −18.30%p | SK Telecom+3.76%· HYBE−1.73%· CJ CheilJedang−2.35% · JYP Ent. −11.20% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
Samsung Electronics (₩9.52tn) and SK hynix (₩7.51tn) alone accounted for the two heaviest KOSPI turnover tickets, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics third at ₩1.74tn.
Samsung Electronics (₩9,517.8bn turnover, +4.89%) and SK hynix (₩7,514.9bn, +5.92%) together accounted for roughly 40% of total KOSPI turnover, consistent with today’s top-10 concentration reading of 65.4%.Samsung Electro-Mechanics (₩1,739.3bn, +12.58%) was the third-heaviest ticket; its gain and volume are the largest of the non-index-giant names in today’s top ten, suggesting a second layer of semiconductor-adjacent buying beyond the two megacaps.
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics | ₩268,000 | +4.89% | ₩9.52tn | +₩1.55tn | −₩309.9bn | −₩326.1bn | −₩37.8bn | −₩1.23tn |
| SK hynix | ₩1,593,000 | +5.92% | ₩7.51tn | +₩1.06tn | +₩257.8bn | −₩94.4bn | +₩117.8bn | −₩1.27tn |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,503,000 | +12.58% | ₩1.74tn | +₩153.7bn | +₩32.6bn | +₩7.0bn | −₩18.8bn | −₩183.8bn |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩187,800 | +0.91% | ₩1.06tn | −₩99.4bn | +₩9.8bn | +₩7.5bn | +₩31.1bn | +₩100.6bn |
| SK Square | ₩1,117,000 | +9.08% | ₩869.7bn | +₩30.2bn | +₩53.2bn | −₩48.6bn | +₩95.4bn | −₩77.7bn |
| Kumho E&C | ₩14,370 | −3.75% | ₩533.4bn | −₩7.8bn | −₩1.2bn | −₩0.1bn | +₩0.0bn | +₩8.5bn |
| SK eternix | ₩57,100 | +8.35% | ₩424.4bn | +₩30.7bn | +₩5.7bn | +₩3.7bn | +₩0.8bn | −₩36.3bn |
| Samwha Capacitor | ₩103,300 | +17.39% | ₩417.6bn | −₩6.1bn | +₩1.1bn | −₩0.2bn | +₩1.4bn | +₩4.5bn |
| NAVER | ₩226,500 | +5.10% | ₩411.6bn | +₩45.5bn | +₩62.8bn | +₩19.0bn | +₩27.5bn | −₩96.7bn |
| Hanwha Aerospace | ₩1,185,000 | +2.51% | ₩306.7bn | +₩31.2bn | −₩16.6bn | −₩26.4bn | +₩0.6bn | −₩14.8bn |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
On a +3.56% KOSPI day, only 333 of 942 listed stocks advanced — fewer than the 533 that declined — revealing a narrow, large-cap-driven rally.
On KOSPI, 333 issues advanced, 533 declined, and 76 were unchanged — an advance-decline ratio of 0.62, meaning decliners outnumbered advancers even on a +3.56% index day.On KOSDAQ, 634 advanced vs. 1,009 declined (ADR 0.63); both boards show the same internal weakness, confirming that today’s headline gains were driven by a handful of large-cap names rather than broad participation.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ closed at 861.37, up just +0.29%, a 3.27-percentage-point gap below KOSPI’s gain.
KOSDAQ closed at 861.37, up +0.29% — a 3.27-percentage-point gap below KOSPI’s gain — as foreign net selling of ₩136.2bn on the second board contrasted sharply with the ₩2,110.2bn bought on KOSPI.Breadth was weaker than the headline: 634 KOSDAQ names rose vs. 1,009 that fell, and the top-10 turnover concentration was 27.5% — moderate by recent standards — suggesting dispersion rather than a coherent rally.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Today does not qualify as a defensive rotation day: semiconductors surged while defensives lagged, the opposite of the rotation definition.
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+1.78%· upside 68% · 31 times historically |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
Today does not meet the rotation definition: a rotation day requires semiconductors (SK hynix + Samsung Electronics average) to fall −2.0% or more and defensives (biotech + food) to outperform by at least +2.0 percentage points.Today semiconductors surged and defensives underperformed the index — the opposite pattern — so no rotation signal is triggered; the rotation base-rate table (117 events since 2018) does not apply to today’s session.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
The crash-precursor score is 3/max, driven by an elevated ADR signal and a short-surge signal, with sell-acceleration and sentiment sub-signals at zero.
The crash-precursor score of 3 is composed of four sub-signals: ADR (score 2, reference July 28, 2026 US session at −16.7%) and short-surge (score 1, reference August 10, 2026 filing); sell-acceleration and extreme-sentiment are both zero.The score is a trailing composite — it reflects conditions from prior sessions and does not directly predict tomorrow; a score of 3 on a strongly up day means residual structural risk remains in the background, not that a reversal is imminent.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
S&P 500 futures point +0.09% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.23% as of the 05:00 KST snapshot on August 13 (2026).
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
The SOX index rose +2.49% on August 12 (2026); KOSPI followed with +3.56% on August 13 (2026), consistent with the Korea-follows-US pattern.
The SOX semiconductor index rose +2.49% on August 12 (2026); KOSPI responded with +3.56% today — a same-direction move that fits the Korea-follows-US template tracked since 2026 YTD.In 2026 YTD data (n=139 sessions), Korea has followed the US on 39 occasions, the US has followed Korea on 30, both moved together on 46, and 24 showed no clear mutual tracking — today fits the Korea-follows-US category given the SOX lead and the foreign buying that translated it into KOSPI gains.
The 2026 YTD mutual-tracking count shows bidirectional influence is common: 46 of 139 sessions saw both markets move in the same direction regardless of which led.With the SOX having risen again into tonight’s US open (Nasdaq 100 futures +0.23%), the question for Friday’s Korean session is whether foreigners extend their three-day buying streak or take profits — the lag-1 foreign-to-KOSPI correlation in 2026 is +0.159, suggesting some, but not strong, next-day persistence.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
The won traded at ₩1,421.6 per dollar, with the dollar index (US Dollar IndexA trade-weighted index measuring the dollar against a basket of six major currencies.A falling DXY reduces hedging costs for foreign holders of Korean assets and is often associated with increased foreign net buying on KOSPI.) at 99.88, down −0.13% as of August 12 (2026).
The won stood at ₩1,421.6 per dollar; the DXY dollar index was 99.88, down −0.13% as of August 12 (2026).The yen-won cross was 892.21 (per 100 yen); the Nikkei 225 rose +1.61% to an intraday high of 68,609.92 during Tokyo morning trade on August 13 (2026), with the TOPIX-proxy ETF up +0.37%.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.68%, down −0.04 percentage points as of August 12 (2026).
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.68%, down −0.04 percentage points as of August 12 (2026); gold stood at 4,443.1 per troy ounce and copper at 6.57 per pound as of the same date.A modest yield decline alongside a weaker dollar is, in isolation, a supportive backdrop for Korean equities through reduced hedging costs for foreign holders — though multiple factors were simultaneously in play today and no single cause can be assigned.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
No brokerage reports were published in today’s data feed; the Wall Street Scoreboard shows a cumulative hit rate of 54% (15/28) over the tracked horizon.
No brokerage reports were collected for today’s edition; the data pipeline retrieves only currently available research, and no same-day reports were captured for August 13 (2026).
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
The Wall Street Scoreboard tracks directional calls by nine major brokerages over a three-session horizon; a call is credited as a hit when the stated direction is correct within the stated window.Cumulative record through August 13 (2026): 15 hits from 28 graded calls, a hit rate of 54%; by firm — Nomura leads at 4/6, Goldman Sachs 3/5, Morgan Stanley 3/4; JP Morgan and Barclays are at 0/3 and 0/2 respectively over the tracked sample.
Today’s event calendar (from the accumulated feed) covers domestic political and policy items: ruling-party criticism of the government’s tax-reform bill, the president’s approval of a selective conscription reform, and a government housing-supply task force launch.None of the calendar entries for August 13 (2026) are directly market-moving corporate or macro releases; geopolitical items (nuclear-submarine defence posture) and science-policy items (university research-security framework) round out the day’s scheduled news.
No brokerage target-price revisions or ratings changes were available in today’s data; company-level detail is sourced from the sector map and daily price data included in this edition.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
Today’s KOSPI prediction called +0.8–2.0%; the index printed +3.56%, so the direction was right but the magnitude was materially underestimated — the model capped the upside for options-expiry volatility when in practice the foreign buying wave dominated.The KOSDAQ call missed entirely (+0.5–1.5% forecast vs. +0.29% actual), underscoring that large-cap semiconductor momentum does not automatically lift the second board when breadth is weak and foreign money stays on KOSPI.