Today’s Calls
Thursday open: chips lead on Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexA market-cap-weighted index of 30 major U.S.-listed semiconductor companies, published by Nasdaq.Treated as the primary overnight lead indicator for Korean chip-sector direction; the 2026-regime same-day KOSPI correlation coefficient is 0.514. +2.49% — will foreign buyers sustain Wednesday’s return?
Heading into Thursday, August 13 (2026), the dominant overnight signal is the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing at 12,399.38 (+2.49%) on August 12, alongside Nikkei CME futures up +1.28% overnight — both pointing to a positive directional lean for Korean semiconductor and electronics names at the open.The critical unknown is foreign investor behavior: the 2026-regime record shows foreigners net-bought on only 26% of the 31 Thursday sessions tracked, and the one-week KOSPI foreign net flow stands at -₩2,756.3bn — whether Wednesday’s apparent foreign return (chart-series data shows a +₩28,354bn reading for the combined market, which is a pre-confirmation figure) continues into today will shape the session’s trajectory alongside several other factors in play simultaneously.
Today’s Calls
Where the day’s calls are placed by number — grading starts with the Early Session edition
Wednesday August 12 forecast: KOSPI +0.8–2.0%, KOSDAQ +0.5–1.5% — scoring deferred to evening edition
Two forecasts were filed at 07:30 on Wednesday, August 12 (2026): P1 called for KOSPI +0.8% to +2.0% on the day (basis: SOX +2.49%, 2026-regime average +2.15% with 77% up-rate across 52 comparable sessions, plus multi-day institutional buying); P2 called for KOSDAQ +0.5% to +1.5% (basis: semiconductor equipment foreign buying continuation).This is the 07:30 pre-open edition of August 13 (2026); confirmed closing levels for August 12 are not available in the current confirmed-data set, so formal scoring (✓ / △ / ✗) will appear in the evening edition once the August 12 closing figures are confirmed.
No individual-stock or sector-level predictions were filed for August 12 (2026) in the recorded prediction log — only the two index-level calls (P1 KOSPI, P2 KOSDAQ) are on record.
The world overnight — how the US session ended
A window on what happened in the US market overnight
Wall Street drifts higher August 12 — SOX +2.49%, S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%
U.S. markets on 2026-08-12 posted modest gains: the S&P 500 at 7,748.5 (+0.26%), Nasdaq at 26,588.49 (+0.54%), and the SOX semiconductor index at 12,399.38 (+2.49%).The Wall Street scorecard through the current tracking window shows a 3-session hit rate of 54% (15 correct of 28 total calls across nine brokerages); individual records range from Nomura at 4/6 to JP Morgan and Barclays at 0/3 and 0/2 respectively, so no single desk’s view warrants outsized weight.In the 2026 YTD sample of 139 sessions, Korea has followed a SOX move of ±0.5%+ in 39 cases on the same day (correlation coefficient 0.514); with SOX up +2.49%, the directional signal leans positive for Korean semiconductors at the open, though multiple factors have overlapped on recent days and no single cause should be treated as decisive.
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
SOX +2.49% on August 12 and Nikkei futures +1.28% overnight point toward a correlated open — YTD Korea-follows-US count reaches 39 of 139 sessions
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed at 12,399.38 on 2026-08-12, up +2.49%, while the S&P 500 gained +0.26% and the Nasdaq added +0.54% on the same date.Overnight as of 05:00 KST on August 13 (2026), S&P 500 futures stood at 7,766.75 (+0.09% from the August 12 15:00 KST reference), Nasdaq 100 futures at 29,805.75 (+0.23%), and Nikkei CME futures at 68,540 (+1.28%); all three figures carry an approximate ±1-hour timing error from the hourly bar methodology.The Nikkei 225 closed at 67,547.81 on 2026-08-12 (+0.86%), while the Korea ETF EWY ended at 175.87 (+5.16%) on the same date.
Year-to-date through August 13 (2026), Korea has followed the U.S. (same-direction move on KOSPI after a SOX move of ±0.5% or more) in 39 of 139 sessions; the U.S. has followed Korea in 30; both markets moved in tandem on 46 days; and 24 sessions showed no co-movement.With SOX up +2.49% on August 12 — above the ±0.5% threshold — this qualifies as a potential Korea-follows-US day; in the 2026 regime the SOX→KOSPI same-day correlation coefficient stands at 0.514 (based on 149 sessions), fading to 0.159 at a one-day lag.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
Night window —EWYofficial indicator
A window on what overnight futures foreshadow for the next day’s open
Overnight global futures steady to firm — Nikkei CME +1.28%, S&P futures +0.09% as of 05:00 KST
As of the 05:00 KST bar on August 13 (2026), S&P 500 futures were at 7,766.75 (+0.09% from the August 12 15:00 KST reference close), Nasdaq 100 futures at 29,805.75 (+0.23%), and Nikkei CME futures (yen-denominated) at 68,540 (+1.28%); all three are hourly-bar approximations carrying an estimated ±1-hour timing error and are not Korean KOSPI 200 night-session futures.The Nikkei’s overnight gain of +1.28% is notable context: in the 2026 YTD sample the U.S. has followed Korea’s direction in 30 of 139 sessions while Korea has followed the U.S. in 39, but the relationship is not one-to-one and the futures readings are pre-open signals rather than confirmed outcomes.
Pre-open08:00~09:00 — single-price auction (open/close)The single-price auction window (before the open and just before the close), where orders are pooled and matched at once.When large volume crowds into this window, a gap is created.forecast
A window on where the pre-open auction is pulling the opening price
Pre-open watch: gap direction in chips and whether Thursday’s historically low foreign buy-rate holds
At 07:30, the auction window (08:30–09:00 KST) has not yet opened; the primary question is whether the SOX +2.49% and Nikkei CME futures +1.28% signal translates into an upward gap for semiconductor-linked names — Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Jusung Engineering each ranked among the top turnover names on August 12.A secondary watch: the 2026-regime data shows foreign investors have net-bought on Thursdays in only 26% of 31 sessions, with an average net-sell position of roughly ₩123.2bn on those days — whether that pattern reasserts itself or yesterday’s foreign return continues is a key variable to track at the open.
Previous-Day Review
A window that retraces what happened in the previous session
Track record context: August 12 went 11-for-11; August 11 went 2-for-14 — regime volatility keeps hit rates wide
The Silmari Fear Gauge
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Crash-precursor score holds at 2 — ADR signal active, remaining gauges clear
The composite crash-precursor score for Thursday, August 13 (2026) stands at 2 out of a possible maximum, with only the ADR sub-signal registering (most recent available reading: U.S. session dated 2026-07-28, ADR -16.7%).The short-selling surge sub-score is 0 (short-position data current through 2026-08-11, T+2 disclosure lag applied); the sell-acceleration sub-score is 0 (based on confirmed flow data through 2026-08-12); and the sentiment-90+ sub-score is 0 (sentiment gauge as of 2026-08-12).The composite sentiment index for today has not yet been computed — the gauge is null at the 07:30 pre-open collection time. The judgment is each reader’s own.
The short-selling surge database covers 369 events since 2018.In the current regime (2026–), the average 5-day return following a surge event is -1.1% across 102 cases, with a downside probability of 52% — against a regime baseline of +2.96%, implying an excess return of -4.06 percentage points.Over the most recent six months the average 5-day return across 97 events is -1.22%, with a downside frequency of 54%; over the most recent twelve months (136 events) the average is -0.67% and downside frequency 51%.
No scheduled macro trigger has been identified in the available data for Thursday, August 13 (2026) — the event calendar entry has not been collected for today’s session.In the absence of a confirmed trigger, the pre-open environment is shaped primarily by the overnight SOX and U.S. equity readings plus the Thursday day-of-week base rate (2026 regime: average +0.34%, up-probability 58%, across 31 sessions).
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won steady at ₩1,416.7 per dollar as of August 12, dollar index little changed at 99.99
The won-dollar rate was quoted at 1,416.7 (₩ per $1) as of 2026-08-12, a marginal move of -0.04% from the prior session, while the DXY dollar index edged up +0.17% to 99.99 on the same date.The yen-won cross stood at 8.86 (yen per won) in the accumulated strip, a level that affects Korea-Japan export competitiveness comparisons; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.68% (-0.04 percentage points day-on-day).
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ closing index not in confirmed data — Jusung Engineering and Wonix IPS led semiconductor equipment turnover
Warning
A window flagging in advance where today’s session calls for caution
Pre-open risk check: crash score 2, Thursday foreign buy-rate 26%, short-surge 5-day downside 52% in current regime
The crash-precursor composite sits at 2, driven solely by the ADR sub-signal (last U.S. ADR reading: -16.7% on 2026-07-28); the three remaining sub-signals — short-selling surge, sell acceleration, and sentiment-90+ — each score 0.In the current regime (2026–), short-selling surge events are followed by a downside outcome in 52 of 100 cases within five sessions; the most recent six-month window shows a slightly higher downside frequency of 54% across 97 events, so this tail risk is not dismissed even when the headline score is low.Thursday’s 2026-regime day-of-week statistics show an average swing range of 3.66% across 31 sessions, with a foreign net-buying probability of only 26% — past Thursday sessions have seen foreigners net-sell on roughly three in four occasions, which has at times amplified intraday volatility regardless of the opening gap direction.