Today’s Calls
The US barely moved overnight; only Index FuturesA contract to buy or sell an index at a set price on a future date.They trade after the cash session closes, so the GapThe difference between the previous close and the first traded price of the day.It shows in one move how much of the overnight overseas material has been priced in at the open. between the cash close and futures is a clue to the next open. edged up
It is Thursday, 27 August 2026, before the open in Seoul.The US cash session hardly moved overnight: the S&P 500 -0.02%, the Nasdaq -0.08%, the Dow -0.21% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexAn index of roughly thirty semiconductor companies compiled on the Philadelphia exchange.It tends to move with Korea’s large semiconductor names, so it is used as a reference for the open. semiconductor index +0.2%.Futures rose afterwards, with Nasdaq 100 futures +0.61% and S&P 500 futures +0.28%, both above the cash close.iShares MSCI South Korea ETFAn exchange-traded fund listed in the United States that holds Korean equities.It trades while the Korean market is closed, giving an early read on how foreign investors price Korea., the US-listed Korea ETF that previews the foreign view, was -0.54% — the opposite of yesterday.
Today’s Calls
Where the day’s calls are placed by number — grading starts with the Early Session edition
Again today the call is a range, not a single probability
Two forecasts are carried on this page today: KOSPI and KOSDAQ.Neither leans either way, so instead of narrowing to a single probability each is placed as a range. The bands in the table below are those ranges — 70% bands, meaning roughly seven days in ten should land inside them.Yesterday the signals pointed opposite ways and could not be narrowed; today the reason differs — all four strands lean faintly the same way, and none of them stands out.
Both forecasts carried on this page yesterday finished inside their bands.Placed as ranges, “did not fall outside” is more accurate than “was right” — a 70%% band is a range roughly seven days in ten should land inside, so landing there is not in itself an achievement.The worth of the method is measured over many days.
The world overnight — how the US session ended
A window on what happened in the US market overnight
All four US readings sat inside a quarter of a percent
In the US cash session the S&P 500 was -0.02%, the Nasdaq -0.08%, the Dow -0.21% and the SOX semiconductor index +0.2% — all four within a narrow range.The US 10-year Treasury yield rose +0.54% to 4.664%, gold +0.32% to 4,653.1 dollars, and copper fell -0.32% to 6.688 dollars.It was a night in which the indicators neither diverged nor gathered on one side.
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
The US was all but stationary overnight
In the US cash session the S&P 500 was -0.02%, the Nasdaq -0.08% and the Dow -0.21%; only the SOX semiconductor index rose, at +0.2%.EWY, the US-listed Korea ETF, fell -0.54% — the reverse of yesterday morning’s +3.75%.
On the year, Korea followed the US on 39 days, the US followed Korea on 30, both moved together on 46 and neither followed on 24, out of 139.On a night with moves this small there is hardly a direction to follow in the first place.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
Night window —EWYofficial indicator
A window on what overnight futures foreshadow for the next day’s open
Futures finished above the cash close
Overnight world futures stood at 7,710.0 for S&P 500 futures (+0.28%), 29,432.5 for Nasdaq 100 futures (+0.61%) and 66,170.0 for Nikkei (CME, yen) futures (-0.25%), measured on the 05:00 KST bar of 27 August against the previous Korean close bar at 15:00 KST on 26 August.The two US contracts rose while the Nikkei contract fell; being an hourly approximation, they can carry about an hour of timing error.
Pre-open08:00~09:00 — single-price auction (open/close)The single-price auction window (before the open and just before the close), where orders are pooled and matched at once.When large volume crowds into this window, a gap is created.forecast
A window on where the pre-open auction is pulling the opening price
The Call AuctionA method that collects orders over a set period and settles them all at a single price.Orders gathered between 08:30 and 09:00 set the first price of the day, so the opening gap is decided there. has not started — watch the gap between cash and futures
At 07:30, when this edition goes out, the pre-open call auction running from 08:30 to 09:00 has not begun, so today’s prices are not in this page.On overnight material alone there is one thing to watch: the US cash session was flat, yet futures then rose as far as +0.61% on the Nasdaq 100. Which way that gap is priced at the open is the question.
Previous-Day Review
A window that retraces what happened in the previous session
Yesterday — the index rose and retail sold 2 trillion won
The Silmari Fear Gauge
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and Short SellingBorrowing shares to sell them first and buying them back later at a lower price.A sudden rise in the balance indicates capital gathering behind a fall in that name.
Sentiment is neutral, with only the volatility component elevated
The composite sentiment score is 0.389, placing the stage at neutral.What remains elevated is 20-day realised volatility at the 89th percentile and the count of consecutive days without a trigger at 87.The gauge read anxious yesterday morning and came down through the session; today opens from there.
The crash-precursor score is 3, graded crash watch.It is made up of the US-listed SK hynix depositary receipt at 2 points and the short-selling surge at 1 point; selling acceleration and elevated sentiment both score 0.
Neither contributing item is a reading from today — the depositary receipt figure of -16.7% is from the US session of 28 July, and the short-selling balance is dated 21 August, disclosed two days later by the exchange.Carrying the grade alone would read as a signal switched on today. The dates are read with it.
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
The won rate is again absent this morning
The won-dollar and yen-won rates are absent from this morning’s data — not that the values do not exist, but that they have not reached us; they will be carried once a later edition fills them in.What can be shown is the dollar index, at 99.133, a move of +0.22%.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ has gone its own way for three sessions
Warning
A window flagging in advance where today’s session calls for caution
Market breadth has not arrived for a third session
The advance-decline measure did not arrive today either — the exchange data source is blocked.The last confirmed reading is 2.02 for KOSPI, dated 24 August, and there has been no value for the two sessions since. It will be carried retroactively once the source reopens.Without it there is no way to separate an index moved by a few large caps from one moved by the whole market — so that judgment is not made today.