Today’s Verdict
The close did not settle into a single figure by evening — a first in nine sessions
As of the final edition on Thursday, 27 August 2026, today’s close has not been settled. The collected data records KOSPI as both 6,879.87 and 6,912.37, and KOSDAQ as both 834.39 and 837.65.The change against the previous close of 6,808.21 depends on which figure is used, so this edition again declines to pick one.The flow data went the other way — today’s investor flows arrived settled. On the same day one side closed and the other is still open.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 08/20 | 1 month ago 07/28 | 1 quarter ago 05/28 | 6 months ago 02/26 | 1 year ago 08/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,879.87 | +1.05% | +0.40% | +14.21% | −15.95% | +9.08% | +115.86% |
| KOSDAQ | 834.39 | +0.91% | −0.77% | +18.21% | −24.45% | −29.77% | +4.07% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
All five calls landed inside their bands — a day on which no direction was staked
Five calls were placed this morning and all five landed inside their bands: KOSPI +1.05%, KOSDAQ +0.91%, SK hynix +2.49%, Samsung Electronics +1.72% and Doosan Enerbility +0.12%.All five were placed as bands only — the grounds for calling up or down were weak, so the width of the move was stated instead of a direction. Scoring therefore asks only whether the outcome fell inside that width.
Landing inside a band does not mean the call was sharp — set the width wide enough and most outcomes land inside it.The band placed on KOSPI today was -5.13~+5.13% and the outcome was +1.05%, well within it.On a day when no direction is staked, the scoring can say only that nothing was got wrong.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
A day that opened higher and whose close had still not shut by evening
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
Retail sold -KRW 1,911.6bn while foreign investors bought +KRW 133.3bn and institutions +KRW 183.5bn — today’s figures are settled
| Investor group | Today | 1 week 08.21~08.27 | 1 month 07.28~08.27 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | +₩133.3bn | −₩7.64tn | −₩5.85tn | −₩70.74tn |
| Retail investors | −₩1.91tn | −₩950.3bn | −₩4.41tn | +₩52.94tn |
| Pension funds | −₩142.9bn | −₩102.6bn | +₩397.1bn | −₩1.88tn |
| Investment firms | +₩287.0bn | +₩1.09tn | +₩394.5bn | +₩8.87tn |
On KOSPI, retail investors sold a net -KRW 1,911.6bn while foreign investors bought +KRW 133.3bn, institutions +KRW 183.5bn and investment firms +KRW 287.0bn; pension funds were -KRW 142.9bn.These figures stood provisional through the daytime editions and turned settled with the final edition’s collection.
Widen the window and the direction reverses — over the past week foreign investors sold a net -KRW 7,640.6bn, while institutions bought +KRW 1,074.1bn and investment firms +KRW 1,093.6bn.Against that, today’s +KRW 133.3bn of foreign buying is a small retracement.
Over the past month foreign investors sold -KRW 5,851.8bn and retail -KRW 4,407.4bn, both net sellers, while institutions +KRW 1,503.2bn, pension funds +KRW 397.1bn and investment firms +KRW 394.5bn absorbed it.Retail runs in different directions across the two windows — -KRW 950.3bn over the week against -KRW 4,407.4bn over the month. Less selling in the short view, far more in the long one.
KOSDAQ investor flows were not received today — exchange data access is restricted and the fallback route covers KOSPI only.So it cannot be said who bought the KOSDAQ names that rose today. The figures will be filled in retroactively once exchange access resumes.
Leveraged exchange-traded funds accounted for 2.596% of turnover as of 24 August. The five sessions before that were 2.557%, 2.101%, 2.43%, 2.667% and 2.845%.This series also ends on 24 August — the three sessions since have no value, for the same reason.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Sentiment gauge at 0.297 — neutral, but four of its eight components are not from today
The sentiment gauge reads 0.297 today, within the neutral band, down from 0.389 in the daytime editions.By percentile, 20-day volatility sits at 86, the no-trigger streak at 87 and the retail-buys-the-dip ratio at 70.
The remaining four components are not today’s values — the five-day margin balance change at 5.72 and the unsettled-payment share at 1.3 are as of 26 August, and the short-selling surge is 3.3 as of 21 August.Financial Investment Association data arrives a day later and exchange short-selling balances two days later. They are late, not missing.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 70(top 30%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 5.03 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 86(top 14%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 87(top 13%) |
The crash-precursor score is 3, in the alert grade. The American depositary receipt item is lit at 2 and the short-selling surge item at 1, while selling acceleration and sentiment are at 0.The dates behind them matter — the depositary receipt item draws on -16.7% from the US session of 28 July, and the short-selling item uses a balance date of 21 August. Neither was lit by today’s data.
That the score is elevated and that the score was built from today’s data are two different statements.Only the first can be made on this page — the second waits on data that has not arrived.
The gauge folds several components into one number, so on days when some of them arrive late it has to be read that much more loosely.On a day like this one, with four of eight several days old, no regime is called from the single number alone.
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
The most recent short-selling balance is as of 21 August — it is disclosed two days later
The exchange discloses short-selling balances two days after the fact, so the most recent data visible in this edition is the balance date of 21 August.Whether short selling rose or fell in today’s session therefore cannot be stated here. Today’s balance is disclosed on 29 August and will be filled in then.
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Power and electrics rose the most at +11.23%; autos fell the most at -3.06%
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | +2.54% | — | — | SK hynix+2.49%· Samsung Electronics+1.72%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics+4.14%· SK Square+0.95%· Jusung Engineering+3.29% |
| AI & Software | −0.56% | — | — | NAVER −1.59%· Kakao−0.96%· DearU+0.86% |
| Power & Electrical | +11.23% | — | — | Doosan Enerbility+0.12% · LS ELECTRIC +8.93%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries+10.08%· HD Hyundai Electric+12.01%· Gaon Cable+25.00% |
| Electronics & Components | +3.36% | — | — | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)−1.27%· Samsung SDI+10.27%· LG Energy Solution+5.56%· LG Electronics−1.10% |
| Autos | −3.06% | — | — | Hyundai Motor−2.45%· Hyundai Mobis−2.69%· Kia−4.03% |
| Defense & Aerospace | +4.96% | — | — | Hanwha Aerospace+5.80%· LIG Defense & Aerospace+4.93%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)+4.16% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | +1.03% | — | — | Hanwha Ocean+2.63%· HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)+0.00% · HMM +0.47% |
| Financials | +0.49% | — | — | KB Financial Group+0.90%· Shinhan Financial Group+1.30%· Hana Financial Group+0.30%· Mirae Asset Securities−0.55% |
| Bio & Healthcare | −0.49% | — | — | Alteogen+0.00%· Celltrion−1.09%· Samsung Biologics−0.31%· Kolon TissueGene−0.58% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | +1.74% | — | — | Daewoo E&C+4.71%· Hyundai E&C−0.84%· DL E&C+1.36% |
| Energy & Chemicals | +0.64% | — | — | SK Innovation+0.72% · S-Oil −3.05%· LG Chem+4.17%· Lotte Chemical+0.70% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | −0.78% | — | — | SK Telecom−0.50%· HYBE−0.34%· CJ CheilJedang−1.53% · JYP Ent. −0.75% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
SK hynix at KRW 5,498.4 bn and Samsung Electronics at KRW 4,426.9 bn took the top two places in KOSPI turnover
SK hynix led KOSPI turnover at KRW 5,498.4 bn and closed +2.49%. Samsung Electronics came second at KRW 4,426.9 bn, closing +1.72%.Next were Samsung Electro-Mechanics (KRW 820.0 bn, +4.14%), Samsung Electronics preferred (KRW 763.2 bn, -1.27%) and Samsung SDI (KRW 525.7 bn, +10.27%) — the largest gain in the top ten.Three of the top ten fell: Hyundai Motor -2.45%, Hyundai Mobis -2.69% and Samsung Electronics preferred -1.27%.
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | ₩1,730,000 (≈$1,251.90) | +2.49% | ₩5.50tn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samsung Electronics | ₩266,000 (≈$192.49) | +1.72% | ₩4.43tn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,385,000 (≈$1,002.24) | +4.14% | ₩820.0bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩194,300 (≈$140.60) | −1.27% | ₩763.2bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samsung SDI | ₩569,000 (≈$411.75) | +10.27% | ₩525.7bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| SK Square | ₩1,068,000 (≈$772.85) | +0.95% | ₩502.8bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hyundai Motor | ₩398,000 (≈$288.01) | −2.45% | ₩460.0bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daewoo E&C | ₩20,000 (≈$14.47) | +4.71% | ₩450.9bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Doosan Enerbility | ₩85,900 (≈$62.16) | +0.12% | ₩322.4bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hyundai Mobis | ₩451,500 (≈$326.72) | −2.69% | ₩306.0bn | — | — | — | — | — |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
Within the most-traded names the spread ran from Samsung SDI at +10.27% to Silicon2 at -5.12%
The largest gain in the KOSPI top ten was Samsung SDI at +10.27%, followed by Daewoo E&C +4.71%, Samsung Electro-Mechanics +4.14% and SK hynix +2.49%.The decliners were Hyundai Mobis -2.69%, Hyundai Motor -2.45% and Samsung Electronics preferred -1.27%.On KOSDAQ, Haechitech +20.19%, Simmtech +12.6% and Taihan Fiberoptics +10.07% rose sharply and only Silicon2 -5.12% fell. Alteogen closed at 0.0%, unchanged from the previous session.Why these names moved as they did could not be confirmed from the data available today — the unconfirmed-catalyst marker remains in place, and no cause is invented to fill it.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
Nine of the ten most-traded KOSDAQ names rose — though the index close is still two figures
Nine of the ten most-traded KOSDAQ names rose and one fell. Haechitech led at +20.19%, followed by Simmtech +12.6%, Taihan Fiberoptics +10.07% and Ecopro +5.75%.The only decliner was Silicon2 at -5.12%, and Alteogen closed at 0.0%, unchanged.The KOSDAQ index close stands as both 834.39 and 837.65, so the size of the advance is not written as a single figure.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Power and defence up, autos down — the gap between sectors was wide
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+2.17%· rose 70% of the time · 33 past occurrences |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
The sectors that rose were power and electrics +11.23%, defence and space +4.96%, electronics and components +3.36%, semiconductors +2.54%, shipbuilding and shipping +1.03% and financials +0.49%.The sectors that fell were autos -3.06% and AI software -0.56%.Who bought and sold within each sector was not received today, so whether this split came from flows cannot be said.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
Market breadth has had no value for three sessions — exchange data is blocked
Market breadth was not received today either. There is no value for 25 August, 26 August or 27 August.The last confirmed readings are KOSPI 2.02 and KOSDAQ 1.3 on 24 August. The three sessions since are empty.This comes from a blocked exchange data source and will be filled in retroactively once it resumes. Until then nothing is said about breadth being wide or narrow — it is absent, not zero.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
US futures are slightly higher tonight — S&P 500 +0.28%, Nasdaq 100 +0.61%
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
This year Korea followed the US on 39 days and the US followed Korea on 30
Cumulatively this year, Korea followed the US on 39 days and the US followed Korea on 30. Both moved together on 46 days and neither followed on 24, out of a sample of 139 sessions.Following is measured by whether the overnight semiconductor index and the next day’s KOSPI moved the same way, and whether that day’s KOSPI and that night’s semiconductor index did.
The US barely moved overnight — Nasdaq -0.08%, S&P 500 -0.02% and the Dow -0.21%, with only the semiconductor index at +0.2%.With movement that small, the session falls outside the threshold used to measure following.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
The won-dollar rate was not received today; the dollar index was +0.07%
The won-dollar exchange rate was not collected today — the sample was insufficient to carry a value.The dollar index stood at 99.241, up +0.07% on the day and +0.4% over the past week. A stronger dollar has tended to move together with foreign money leaving the market.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.664%, up +0.54%
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.664% as of 26 August, up +0.54% on the day and -0.9% over the past week.When yields rise, the harder it becomes to price companies whose earnings sit further in the future.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
88 brokerage reports were published today
88 brokerage reports were collected today. Most are single-company analyses, many covering individual names such as Hyundai Motor and SK Biopharmaceuticals.Report titles and stances are carried as written; this page does not thereby endorse their judgements.
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
The cumulative record for foreign investment bank stances stands at 14 of 26 calls correct, or 54%.The set was gathered retroactively and may carry collection bias — only items whose headlines carried both a report marker such as a price target and an explicit stance were included, with commentary pieces excluded.
Today is a Thursday, and in this year’s regime the average KOSPI move on Thursdays is +0.62% with an advance probability of 62% and an average range of 3.6%, over a sample of 34 sessions.A sample of thirty-four is too small to say anything about tomorrow on its own.
In the sovereign AI thread, entries on the policy and industrial-structure layers have continued since late July.Some items collected from overseas could not be traced to their source and are marked as such.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
Today’s lesson sat outside the page — a close that had not settled by the final edition is something the last nine sessions had not produced.Until now the two sources converged by evening, and the final edition closed the day on a settled figure. Today it could not, and rather than hide that, both figures were carried side by side.From tomorrow’s closing edition the index entry is written differently — on days when the two sources disagree, which one later proves correct is now known, so that figure is carried and the label states that settlement has not yet been declared.A day when no single figure can be chosen and a day when the figure is known but the declaration is pending are not the same. Today was the former.