Today’s Calls
US markets rose sharply overnight — for once all four strands point the same way
Semiconductors led the overnight session in the United States — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose +2.33%, the Nasdaq +1.57%, the S&P 500 +0.72% and the Dow +0.2%.The US-listed exchange-traded fund holding Korean equities also rose +1.65%. The KOSPI close that stood as two figures into last evening has settled at 6,912.37, up +1.53% on the session.The KOSDAQ close settled at 837.65.
Today’s Calls
Where the day’s calls are placed by number — grading starts with the Early Session edition
A direction is staked today — the strongest strand puts KOSPI at 77%
KOSPI is called to the upside today, on the grounds that all four strands point the same way — in the Nasdaq +1.57% bucket, the next session rose 77% of the time across 207 cases, averaging +0.77%, with the middle half between +0.04~+1.24%.The semiconductor +2.33% bucket carries 70% across 334 cases, the VIX -4.60% bucket 60% across 275, and the WTI +1.79% bucket 59% across 345. Even the weakest strand clears 59%.KOSDAQ leans the same way but less steeply — 72% in the Nasdaq bucket, 67% in the semiconductor bucket, 58% in the VIX bucket and 55% in the WTI bucket, lower than KOSPI on every strand.
Yesterday the strongest strand reached only 61%, which could not separate a direction, so a band was stated and no direction staked. Today it reaches 77%.Even so, 77% means that in the same setup the outcome went the other way two or three times in ten. The sample is 207 cases, and that figure does not settle today.All five of yesterday’s calls landed inside their bands — on a day when no direction was staked, the scoring can say only that nothing was got wrong.
The world overnight — how the US session ended
A window on what happened in the US market overnight
A night led by semiconductors — the Philadelphia index rose +2.33%
US markets moved higher overnight — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.33%, the Nasdaq +1.57%, the S&P 500 +0.72% and the Dow +0.2%, all as of 27 August.That semiconductors outpaced the broad indices is the detail that matters most for the Korean session — KOSPI carries a heavy semiconductor weighting and has often moved with that index.The US-listed fund holding Korean equities rose +1.65%, a figure read as the temperature at which foreign investors are viewing this market.
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
With the US moving sharply overnight, today counts as a following day
Following is measured by whether the overnight semiconductor index and that day’s KOSPI moved the same way. With the index up +2.33% overnight, today clears that threshold.Yesterday the US barely moved and the session fell outside the threshold — two consecutive nights of quite different character.
Following is a record counted after the fact, not a rule that governs today.That the two have often moved together and that they will do so today are different statements.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
Night window —EWYofficial indicator
A window on what overnight futures foreshadow for the next day’s open
US futures are slightly higher this morning — S&P 500 +0.19%, Nasdaq 100 +0.46%
This morning US futures stood at +0.19% for the S&P 500 and +0.46% for the Nasdaq 100, with Nikkei futures at -0.02%.The reference is the 08-28 05:00 bar against 08-27 15:00. This is movement after the cash session closed and does not set the direction of the open.
Pre-open08:00~09:00 — single-price auction (open/close)The single-price auction window (before the open and just before the close), where orders are pooled and matched at once.When large volume crowds into this window, a gap is created.forecast
A window on where the pre-open auction is pulling the opening price
The pre-open reading equals yesterday’s close — there is no move for today yet
As of 07:10 before the open, the live reading was KOSPI 6,912.37 and KOSDAQ 837.65, the same as yesterday’s settled close.A table showing 0.0% does not mean the market has not moved; it means the session has not opened.Both sources are giving the same value — the entry that diverged all through yesterday is currently in agreement.
Previous-Day Review
A window that retraces what happened in the previous session
Yesterday’s close settled this morning — the entry that ran as two figures on the page
The Silmari Fear Gauge
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Two crash-precursor signals are lit — but the dates behind them are not today
Two of the four items that build the crash-precursor score are lit — the American depositary receipt item and the short-selling surge item.The dates behind them matter — the depositary receipt item draws on -16.7% from the US session of 28 July, and the short-selling item uses a balance date of 21 August.
Exchange short-selling balances are disclosed two days later, and margin balances and the unsettled-payment share arrive a day later. They are late, not missing.So several of the sentiment inputs visible this morning are several days old, and no regime is called from a single number.
Market breadth was not received today either — the exchange data source is blocked.The last confirmed reading is KOSPI 2.02 on 24 August, and the four sessions since have no value. Nothing is said about breadth being wide or narrow — it is absent, not zero.
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
The won-dollar rate was again not received; the dollar index was -0.05%
The won-dollar exchange rate was not collected today — the sample was insufficient to carry a value. The same applies to the yen-won rate.The dollar index stood at 99.123, down -0.05%. A weakening dollar has tended to move together with foreign money coming into this market.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ settled at 837.65 yesterday — today’s signal is shallower than KOSPI’s
Warning
A window flagging in advance where today’s session calls for caution
On a day when the signals converge, read the sample and the probability together
Days on which all four strands point the same way are uncommon, which is precisely why the numbers should be read as they are.That the strongest strand carries an advance probability of 77% means that in the same setup the outcome went the other way two or three times in ten. The sample is 207 cases.This page does not tell anyone what to buy or sell — it records what was there and how similar situations turned out.