Today’s Verdict
A day staked to the upside closed at -1.79% — the two indices parted ways
On Friday, 28 August 2026, KOSPI closed at 6,788.88, down -1.79% on the day, while KOSDAQ closed at 838.41, up +0.09%. Both are exchange-confirmed closing levels with the two sources in agreement.This morning both indices were staked to the upside. KOSPI went the other way; KOSDAQ held on to a narrow gain.Production constraints meant the 12:00 midday edition and the 16:00 closing edition could not be published today. What those two would have carried — the closing path and the end-of-day scoring — is set down in this edition instead.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 08/21 | 1 month ago 07/29 | 1 quarter ago 05/29 | 6 months ago 02/27 | 1 year ago 08/28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,788.88 | −1.79% | −1.79% | +19.88% | −19.91% | +8.72% | +112.40% |
| KOSDAQ | 838.41 | +0.09% | +4.55% | +26.52% | −21.99% | −29.71% | +5.01% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
A direction staked at 77% — five of five inside the band, two of five on direction
Five calls were placed this morning and the outcomes were KOSPI -1.79%, KOSDAQ +0.09%, SK hynix -4.45%, Samsung Electronics -3.38% and Samsung Electro-Mechanics +2.6%.All five landed inside their bands. But since all five were staked to the upside, only KOSDAQ and Samsung Electro-Mechanics had the direction right.Landing inside the band and getting the direction right are different things. Today those two came apart more sharply than on any recent session.
KOSPI was placed at an advance probability of 77% (based on 207 similar cases). All four strands pointed upward and even the weakest cleared 59%.The outcome was -1.79%. What that teaches is not that the probability was wrong but that four strands pointing the same way does not settle a day.All four strands came from the same overnight US session. They look like separate indicators, but they are four views of one night, so their agreement does not amount to four independent grounds.When a direction is staked next, the first question is not how many strands agree but whether the strands come from different places. That is today’s lesson.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
On a day when every overnight signal pointed up, semiconductors pulled the index down
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
Evening compilation — institutions -KRW 1,187.6bn, investment firms -KRW 1,209.8bn and foreign investors -KRW 852.5bn sold; retail bought +KRW 419.4bn
| Investor group | Today | 1 week 08.24~08.28 | 1 month 07.29~08.28 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | −₩852.5bn | −₩8.32tn | −₩2.20tn | −₩68.85tn |
| Retail investors | +₩419.4bn | +₩634.3bn | −₩8.30tn | +₩49.75tn |
| Pension funds | −₩22.9bn | −₩171.9bn | +₩257.7bn | −₩1.88tn |
| Investment firms | −₩1.21tn | −₩312.1bn | −₩879.9bn | +₩8.65tn |
On KOSPI, institutions sold a net -KRW 1,187.6bn, investment firms -KRW 1,209.8bn and foreign investors -KRW 852.5bn, while retail investors bought +KRW 419.4bn and pension funds were -KRW 22.9bn.This is the 19:45 compilation, taken from the fallback route — exchange data collection has been blocked since the evening. The exchange’s own tally is confirmed on the next trading day.
Investor flow figures change with the moment they are compiled. On some days the numbers seen just after the close and those seen in the evening differ in size and in the order of who sold most.That is why intraday flow numbers are not read as the day’s conclusion. The figures carried here are the 19:45 compilation.
Over the past week foreign investors sold -KRW 8,317.1bn, investment firms -KRW 312.1bn and institutions -KRW 361.6bn, while retail bought +KRW 634.3bn.Over the past month retail sold the most at -KRW 8,303.2bn, followed by foreign investors -KRW 2,203.4bn and investment firms -KRW 879.9bn, while pension funds +KRW 257.7bn and institutions +KRW 132.6bn were net buyers.Retail runs in opposite directions across the two windows — buying over the week, selling heavily over the month.
KOSDAQ investor flows were not received today either — exchange data access is restricted and the fallback route covers KOSPI only.So it cannot be said who bought the KOSDAQ names that held it in positive territory. The figures will be filled in retroactively once the source resumes.
Leveraged exchange-traded funds accounted for 2.596% of turnover as of 24 August. The five sessions before that were 2.557%, 2.101%, 2.43%, 2.667% and 2.845%.This series also ends on 24 August — the sessions since have no value, for the same reason.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Crash-precursor scoreA score summing four items — depositary receipt declines, short-selling surges, selling acceleration and sentiment overheating — to gauge a risk regime.Each item’s data arrives on its own schedule, so the date behind each lit signal must be read alongside the score to avoid mistaking it for today’s risk. of 2 — one item lit, and its basis is a figure from 28 July
The crash-precursor score reads 2, in the caution grade, down from 3 yesterday.One item is lit, the American depositary receipt item, while short-selling surge, selling acceleration and sentiment are at 0.
The date behind it matters — the depositary receipt item draws on -16.7% from the US session of 28 July. It is not a signal lit by today’s data.Short-selling balances are disclosed two days later, so figures on or before 26 August are the most recent, and selling acceleration is measured from the flows of 26 August and 27 August.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.24 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 73(top 27%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 5.04 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 86(top 14%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 87(top 13%) |
The sentiment gauge reads 0.298, within the neutral band. Four of its eight components have no value today — margin balance, unsettled-payment share, short-selling surge and leveraged ETF share.By percentile, 20-day volatility sits at 86, the no-trigger streak at 87 and the retail-buys-the-dip ratio at 70.
What the score reads and whether that score was built from today’s data are two different statements.Only the first can be made on this page.
An indicator that folds several components into one number has to be read loosely on days when some of them arrive late.On a day like this one, with four of eight several days old or missing, no regime is called from the single number.
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
The most recent short-selling balance is from on or before 26 August — disclosed two days later
The exchange discloses short-selling balances two days after the fact, so the most recent data visible in this edition is from on or before 26 August.Whether short selling rose or fell in today’s session cannot be stated here. It will be filled in when today’s balance is disclosed early next week.
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Energy and chemicals rose +4.52% while semiconductors fell -1.85%
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | −1.85% | Selling | — | SK hynix−4.45%· Samsung Electronics−3.38%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics+2.60%· SK Square−3.75%· Jusung Engineering−1.28% |
| AI & Software | +1.62% | Buying | — | NAVER +1.85%· Kakao+2.36%· DearU+0.64% |
| Power & Electrical | −0.32% | Selling | — | Doosan Enerbility+2.68%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries+2.40%· HD Hyundai Electric−0.85% · LS ELECTRIC −2.28%· Gaon Cable−3.55% |
| Electronics & Components | −0.51% | Selling | — | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)−3.86%· Samsung SDI+0.35%· LG Electronics+1.61%· LG Energy Solution−0.13% |
| Autos | +0.56% | Selling | — | Hyundai Motor+0.38%· Hyundai Mobis−0.22%· Kia+1.51% |
| Defense & Aerospace | −1.38% | Selling | — | Hanwha Aerospace+0.61%· LIG Defense & Aerospace−1.48%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)−3.27% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | −0.57% | Selling | — | HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)−1.66%· Hanwha Ocean−1.23% · HMM +1.17% |
| Financials | +1.21% | Selling | — | KB Financial Group+2.08%· Shinhan Financial Group+0.83%· Hana Financial Group+1.80%· Mirae Asset Securities+0.14% |
| Bio & Healthcare | −1.13% | Selling | — | Alteogen+2.73%· Samsung Biologics−6.78%· Celltrion−0.31%· Kolon TissueGene−0.16% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | −1.07% | Selling | — | Daewoo E&C−1.55%· Hyundai E&C−0.31%· DL E&C−1.35% |
| Energy & Chemicals | +4.52% | — | — | SK Innovation+4.38% · S-Oil +9.14%· LG Chem+0.91%· Lotte Chemical+3.66% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | +0.71% | Selling | — | SK Telecom−0.50%· HYBE+0.84%· CJ CheilJedang+1.61% · JYP Ent. +0.88% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
SK hynix at KRW 4,720.2 bn and Samsung Electronics at KRW 3,819.8 bn took the top two places in KOSPI turnover
SK hynix led KOSPI turnover at KRW 4,720.2 bn and closed -4.45%. Samsung Electronics came second at KRW 3,819.8 bn, closing -3.38%. The two semiconductor names fell together and weighed on the index.Third-placed Samsung Electro-Mechanics traded KRW 1,062.5 bn and rose +2.6%, while Kumho E&C (KRW 591.6 bn) gained +12.34% and Kumho Electric (KRW 252.9 bn) jumped +29.93%.Six of the top ten rose — Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Kumho E&C, Doosan Enerbility, Samsung SDI, Kumho Electric and NAVER — and four fell: SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics preferred and SK Square.On KOSDAQ, Alteogen led turnover at KRW 195.5 bn, followed by Wonik Holdings (KRW 163.8 bn), Wooree Investment (KRW 148.0 bn) and Haechitech (KRW 142.6 bn). With exchange data access restricted, this list comes from the fallback route.
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | ₩1,653,000 (≈$1,202.44) | −4.45% | ₩4.72tn | −₩1.21tn | −₩459.0bn | −₩265.1bn | −₩7.9bn | +₩566.8bn |
| Samsung Electronics | ₩257,000 (≈$186.95) | −3.38% | ₩3.82tn | −₩503.8bn | −₩427.3bn | −₩170.6bn | −₩55.9bn | +₩409.7bn |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,421,000 (≈$1,033.68) | +2.60% | ₩1.06tn | +₩187.2bn | +₩97.1bn | +₩42.9bn | +₩19.6bn | −₩281.0bn |
| Kumho E&C | ₩17,020 (≈$12.38) | +12.34% | ₩591.6bn | +₩8.2bn | −₩1.2bn | +₩0.1bn | +₩0.1bn | −₩7.0bn |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩186,800 (≈$135.88) | −3.86% | ₩545.8bn | −₩152.9bn | −₩29.3bn | +₩2.8bn | −₩2.5bn | +₩180.6bn |
| SK Square | ₩1,028,000 (≈$747.80) | −3.75% | ₩459.8bn | +₩70.6bn | −₩122.8bn | −₩69.7bn | −₩42.1bn | +₩51.3bn |
| Doosan Enerbility | ₩88,200 (≈$64.16) | +2.68% | ₩304.5bn | +₩7.0bn | +₩71.7bn | +₩45.1bn | +₩9.1bn | −₩76.9bn |
| Samsung SDI | ₩571,000 (≈$415.36) | +0.35% | ₩253.0bn | −₩56.9bn | +₩89.6bn | +₩37.9bn | +₩37.4bn | −₩34.1bn |
| Kumho Electric | ₩10,680 (≈$7.77) | +29.93% | ₩252.9bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| NAVER | ₩220,500 (≈$160.40) | +1.85% | ₩211.4bn | +₩0.1bn | +₩22.8bn | +₩11.6bn | +₩12.8bn | −₩21.7bn |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
From Kumho Electric at +29.93% to Haechitech at -10.27% — a wide spread within the turnover list
The largest gain in the KOSPI top ten was Kumho Electric at +29.93%, followed by Kumho E&C +12.34%, Doosan Enerbility +2.68% and Samsung Electro-Mechanics +2.6%.The decliners were SK hynix -4.45%, Samsung Electronics preferred -3.86%, SK Square -3.75% and Samsung Electronics -3.38%.On KOSDAQ, Silicon2 +8.44%, Wooree Investment +5.7% and Alteogen +2.73% rose, while Haechitech -10.27%, Wonik Holdings -5.78% and Taihan Fiberoptics -3.7% fell.Why these names moved as they did could not be confirmed from the data available today — the unconfirmed-catalyst marker remains in place, and no cause is invented to fill it.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ held at +0.09% — a day the two indices closed on opposite sides
KOSDAQ closed at 838.41, up +0.09%, while KOSPI closed at -1.79% — the two moved apart.Five of the ten most-traded KOSDAQ names rose — Silicon2 +8.44%, Wooree Investment +5.7%, Alteogen +2.73%, Wooree Technology +2.21% and HPSP +1.19% — and five fell.With investor flows not received, which group held it up cannot be stated.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Energy, chemicals and AI filled the space semiconductors left
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+2.17%· rose 70% of the time · 33 past occurrences |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
The sectors that rose were energy and chemicals +4.52%, AI software +1.62%, financials +1.21%, consumer and entertainment +0.71% and autos +0.56%.The sectors that fell were semiconductors -1.85%, defence and space -1.38%, biotech -1.13%, construction and infrastructure -1.07%, shipbuilding and shipping -0.57%, electronics and components -0.51% and power and electrics -0.32%.Who bought and sold within each sector was not received today, so whether this split came from flows cannot be said.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
Market breadth was not received today — data through yesterday is in place
Today’s market breadth was not received. Exchange data collection was blocked again from the evening, and the figure will be filled in retroactively once the source resumes.Data through yesterday is in place — the KOSPI advance-decline ratio read 2.86 on 25 August, 2.13 on 26 August and 0.59 on 27 August.Yesterday the index rose on a day when 317 names advanced against 539 declining, putting the ratio below 1 — a few large names carried the index.Today’s decline and yesterday’s earlier turn in breadth can be set side by side, but a single instance is not joined here as cause and effect.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
US futures were slightly higher this morning — S&P 500 +0.19%, Nasdaq 100 +0.46%
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
The US rose sharply overnight and Korea fell — today did not follow
Overnight the US moved higher — the semiconductor index +2.33%, the Nasdaq +1.57%, the S&P 500 +0.72% and the Dow +0.2%. The US-listed fund holding Korean equities rose +1.65%.Yet KOSPI closed at -1.79%. The overnight signal and the session’s direction parted.
Cumulatively this year, Korea followed the US on 39 days and the US followed Korea on 30. Both moved together on 46 days and neither followed on 24, out of a sample of 139 sessions.Days on which neither followed number 24 out of 139 — days like today are not rare, and that count belongs alongside any direction built on the overnight US session.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
The won-dollar rate was again not received; the dollar index was +0.02%
The won-dollar exchange rate was not collected today — the sample was insufficient to carry a value. The same applies to the yen-won rate.The dollar index stood at 99.18, up +0.02% on the day and +0.3% over the past week. Gold was 4,658.6, up +1.06% on the day and +3.2% over the week.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.672%, up +0.17%
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.672% as of 27 August, up +0.17% on the day and +0.4% over the past week.When yields rise, the harder it becomes to price companies whose earnings sit further in the future.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
89 brokerage reports were published today
89 brokerage reports were collected today, most of them single-company analyses covering names such as Hanon Systems and Hyundai Motor.Report titles and stances are carried as written; this page does not thereby endorse their judgements.
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
The cumulative record for foreign investment bank stances stands at 14 of 26 calls correct, or 54%.The set was gathered retroactively and may carry collection bias — only items whose headlines carried both a report marker such as a price target and an explicit stance were included, with commentary pieces excluded.
Today is a Friday, and in this year’s regime the average KOSPI move on Fridays is +0.56% with an advance probability of 58% and an average range of 3.79%, over a sample of 33 sessions.Today’s outcome of -1.79% sits on the other side of that average. With a sample of thirty-three, the day of the week settles nothing — today shows that again.
In the sovereign AI thread, entries on the policy and industrial-structure layers have continued since late July.Some items collected from overseas could not be traced to their source and are marked as such.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
Today’s lesson sits in how the call was placed — four strands all pointed upward, a direction was staked on that, and the outcome was the opposite.Looking back, the four strands were the semiconductor index, the Nasdaq, the volatility index and crude oil — all figures from the same overnight US session. They look like separate indicators, but they are four views of one night, so their agreement does not amount to four independent grounds.What actually pulled the index down were the two semiconductor names carrying the heaviest turnover, moving opposite to the overnight rise in the US semiconductor index. An overnight signal does not explain domestic flows in individual names.So when a direction is staked next, the first question is not how many strands agree but whether they come from different places. Four strands from one place are closer to one strand.It should also be recorded that the midday and closing editions could not be published today, leaving the day’s account gathered into this single edition. That a gap existed is part of the record.