The Silmari

A daily data newsletter on the Korean stock market — silmari, ‘a clue: the loose end that unravels the knot’

⑤ After-Hours 18:002026.08.10 Mon · No. 8Sentiment gauge: “Neutral” — composite score 0.937, with the volatility component (VKOSPI proxy 6.43) at the 96th expanding percentile; three of seven sub-components (credit, margin, short-surge) were uncollected today.

⑤ After-Hours · published 18:00 KST · after the regular session · Note: flow and sector figures in this edition were collected at 07:49 KST — an intraday snapshot, not the confirmed close — and were not refreshed later in the session. KRX investor-flow figures are provisional during the day and finalized in the evening.

① Pre-Open07:30 ② Early Session10:00 ③ Midday12:00 ④ Closing16:00 ⑤ After-Hours18:00 ⑥ Final20:00

01 · VerdictRegular session confirmed 15:30 KST

verdict at evening

KOSPI +0.65%, KOSDAQ Surges +6.97% — Morning Call Missed on KOSDAQ

The KOSPI closed Monday, August 10 (2026) at 6,299.66, up 0.65%, swinging through a 161.61-point intraday range — a 2.59% spread from trough to peak — as the index opened at 6,306.33, tagged a high of 6,394.06, and gave back gains to close near session lows.The KOSDAQ was the session’s defining story: it surged 6.97% to close at 854.47 — a move the morning call flatly missed, having projected a range of −0.3% to +0.5%.

Key points

01KOSDAQ +6.97% — the morning call projected −0.3% to +0.5%; the call missed by a wide margin and is recorded as such.

02KOSPI held +0.65% on a 2.59% intraday range (6,232.45 low → 6,394.06 high); the morning’s +1.0–2.0% KOSPI call also missed on magnitude, though direction was correct.

03The crash-precursor score stands at 2 (of a possible higher reading), driven entirely by the ADRAdvance-Decline RatioThe number of advancing issues divided by declining issues on a given exchange; a reading above 1.0 means more stocks rose than fell.The ADR signal is the sole active component in today’s crash-precursor score of 2, making it the key breadth indicator to watch. signal; short-surge, sell-acceleration, and sentiment-90+ components each read zero.

04The Nikkei 225 rose 2.02% intraday to 66,931.48 (as of the 11:35 JST snapshot); S&P 500 futures were up 0.54% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.95% as of the Friday overnight window — the external backdrop broadly supportive heading into the U.S. open.

02 · NXTNextrade Alternative ExchangeKorea’s first alternative trading system, operating pre-market, main-market, and after-market sessions alongside the KRX main board.NXT’s after-market session is the venue through which price discovery continues after the 15:30 KRX close; Monday’s confirmed figure will be published in the 20:00 final edition.NXT after-hours reference time — not yet set

Evening disclosures —Short sellingShort sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance

A window on whether the regular session’s move carried into the evening alternative venue

NXT After-Market: Friday August 7 (2026) Confirmed — ₩41,496bn After-Hours Volume, 13.0% NXT Market Share

Today’s after-market NXT data is not yet confirmed — the August 10 (2026) session figure is collected at the final 20:00 edition; the most recent confirmed day is Friday, August 7 (2026), when NXT’s after-market session recorded ₩41,496bn in turnover across 600 names, against a main-session ₩94,788bn, giving NXT a full-day market share of 13.0%.These are NXT (alternative exchange) figures only — not KRX main-board data — and represent the prior day’s confirmed settlement; the current after-market session is still in progress and will be reported in the 20:00 final edition.

03 · Gap risksRisk → same condition in the past → outcome distribution

Tomorrow morninggap risks 4names

A window naming in advance what could shake tomorrow’s opening price

Futures Positioning: Foreigners Net Long 1,463 Contracts, Institutions Net Short 2,080 Contracts on August 10 (2026)

ADR

Signal Score Total 2pts

signal 2 points

Short-interest surge

Signal Score Total 2pts

signal 0 points

Selling acceleration

Signal Score Total 2pts

signal 0 points

Sentiment 90+

Signal Score Total 2pts

signal 0 points

05 · PrincipleEvening Trading Principles reference time — not yet set

Evening Trading Principles

A window recording the trading principles to hold to on the evening of a crash day

Crash-Precursor Score Stays Low at 2, But Three Sentiment Inputs Remain Uncollected

With the crash-precursor score at 2 and only the ADR signal active, conditions do not indicate imminent systemic stress — but three of seven sentiment inputs (credit, margin utilization, short surge) are uncollected for today, which means the composite reading of 0.937 is based on partial data and should be weighted accordingly.In the current regime (2026~), short-surge events have been followed five days later by an average KOSPI return of −1.91% with a 55% probability of a down move (n = 97); today’s score shows no short-surge trigger, but the most recent confirmed short-surge events in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix date to late July and are within the observable window.The judgment is each reader’s own.