Today’s Verdict
KOSDAQ Surges +6.97% as Bio and Defense Rally; KOSPI Gains a Modest +0.65%
Monday, August 10 (2026) ended with a tale of two markets: the KOSPI inched up 0.65% to 6,299.66 while the KOSDAQ vaulted 6.97% to 854.47, one of the sharpest single-day divergences between the two benchmarks this year.Alteogen (+14.1%), defense equipment names, and a broad sweep of KOSDAQ small-caps drove the move, while Samsung Electronics (–0.43%) and SK hynix (–0.14%) — the two heaviest KOSPI weights — closed marginally in the red despite generating the day’s highest turnover figures.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 08/03 | 1 month ago 07/10 | 1 quarter ago 05/11 | 6 months ago 02/09 | 1 year ago 08/08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,299.66 | +0.65% | +0.67% | −15.73% | −19.46% | +18.91% | +96.25% |
| KOSDAQ | 854.47 | +6.97% | +15.88% | +2.03% | −29.23% | −24.22% | +5.59% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
P1 (KOSPI direction) correct but magnitude missed; P2 (KOSDAQ) missed on both direction and magnitude
Of the two calls posted at 07:30, P1 (KOSPI +1.0~+2.0%) got the direction right but the actual +0.65% fell short of the predicted band — scored a miss on precision. P2 (KOSDAQ –0.3~+0.5%) missed comprehensively: the index closed up +6.97%, more than thirteen times the upper end of the forecast range.
No prediction was entered for individual sectors or the won/dollar rate today.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
Monday’s intraday range of 161.61 points (2.59%) on KOSPI and 47.72 points (5.91%) on KOSDAQ signals elevated volatility relative to recent sessions
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
KOSPI futures: foreigners net bought 2,205 contracts, institutions net sold 2,840 contracts on Monday, August 10 (2026)
| Investor group | Today | 1W 08.04~08.10 | 1M 07.09~08.10 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | −₩1.49tn | −₩4.57tn | −₩5.12tn | −₩104.19tn |
| Retail investors | +₩900.3bn | +₩4.14tn | +₩2.70tn | +₩87.06tn |
| Pension funds | −₩144.9bn | −₩194.7bn | +₩1.09tn | −₩3.51tn |
| Investment firms | +₩581.6bn | +₩1.12tn | −₩570.8bn | +₩21.41tn |
Today’s investor-flow data for KOSPI and KOSDAQ cash markets is from KRX official figures.Futures data is available and partially fills the gap: foreigners net bought 2,205 futures contracts on Monday, August 10 (2026), extending a pattern of net buying in 2 of the last 3 sessions (Aug 7: +3,913; Aug 6: +1,661).
Individual investors net bought 833 futures contracts today, moving in the same direction as foreigners — an alignment that occurred on only 2 of the 5 most recent sessions.In the 2026 regime (146-day sample), the same-day correlation between foreign net buying and individual net selling runs at –0.846, so today’s co-directional positioning is the exception rather than the norm.
Institutions net sold 2,840 futures contracts, with the ex-securities-firm subset (pension funds, insurance, banks, other financials) accounting for –3,381 contracts and the securities-firm desk offsetting with +439 contracts.The pension-fund component is embedded in the ex-securities aggregate but cannot be separated from today’s data alone; the direction suggests institutional hedging activity continued.
On KOSDAQ, foreigners changed direction with 102.7 billion won in net purchases today, while individuals recorded 672.9 billion won in net sales — contrasting with KOSPI where foreigners sold 1,490.9 billion won and individuals bought 900.3 billion won.On a weekly cumulative basis, foreigners on KOSPI recorded 4,570.5 billion won in net sales while KOSDAQ showed 973 billion won in net sales with a significant difference in scale, and individuals had 4,138.8 billion won in net purchases on KOSPI but 111 billion won in net sales on KOSDAQ, with distinct market characteristics diverging.
Looking at the cumulative quarter (20260511~20260810), a clear structure emerges in KOSPI where foreigners recorded net selling of -1,041,885 hundred million won while individuals captured 870,592 hundred million won.During the same period in KOSDAQ, directions diverged, with foreigners recording net buying of 23,179 hundred million won while individuals showed net selling dominance at -27,619 hundred million won.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Sentiment gauge holds ‘Neutral’ with vol20 at the 96th percentile — three of eight inputs uncollected
The sentiment gauge scored 0.937 today, placing it in the ‘Neutral’ stage under the expanding-percentile framework (thresholds at the 10th, 35th, 65th, and 90th percentiles).Of the eight components, only three were collected: pbuy_down at the 69th percentile (0.0 raw), vol20 at the 96th percentile (6.4), and notrigger_streak at the 85th percentile (0). The remaining five — credit5d, margin, short_surge, lev_share, and the news-fear keyword proxy — were not available.
The ‘Neutral’ stage has been the prevailing reading in recent sessions; the data does not supply a count of how many past ‘Neutral’ days were followed by specific return outcomes, so no distributional comparison can be stated.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 69(top 31%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 6.4 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 96(top 4%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 85(top 15%) |
| Leveraged-ETF share of turnover | 12.5 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 95(top 5%) |
No trigger condition was active today — the notrigger_streak component registered 0, and the crash-precursor score of 2 reflects only the ADR sub-signal, not a full trigger composite.
When the gauge is in ‘Neutral’ without a trigger, the index has historically moved in either direction; the data does not provide a conditional return distribution for trigger-absent Neutral days, so no probability estimate can be stated.
The eight gauge components are: (1) credit5d — 5-day change in margin-loan balance; (2) margin — absolute margin-loan level; (3) pbuy_down — retail net buying on down-days; (4) short_surge — short-selling balance spike indicator; (5) vol20 — 20-day realized volatility proxy (today’s reading: 6.4); (6) notrigger_streak — consecutive days without a trigger event; (7) lev_share — single-stock leverage ETF share of total turnover; and (8) a news-fear keyword count used as a reference text approximation only and excluded from the composite score.The judgment is each reader’s own.
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
Short-surge base rate: in the current regime (2026–), 55 of 97 post-surge windows ended lower over 5 days, with an average return of –1.91%
The short-surge database covers 360 events (defined as a short-interest balance at least 2.0× its 5-day-prior level, with a base position of 50,000 shares or more).In the current regime (2026–, n=97), the average 5-day return after a surge is –1.91%, with 55% of windows ending lower — compared with a regime baseline of +2.83%, implying an excess of –4.74 percentage points. The most recent surges on record — SK hynix (July 23–24 and 27) and Samsung Electronics (July 24, 27, and 28) — showed mixed 5-day outcomes ranging from –31.11% to +19.32%, consistent with the high dispersion typical of the current regime.
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Bio (+6.31%) and defense (+5.34%) led gainers; financials (–0.35%) and consumer/entertainment (–0.64%) lagged
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | +5.89% | Selling | −4.60%p | Samsung Electronics−0.43%· SK hynix−0.14%· SK Square+1.06%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics−0.31%· Jusung Engineering+13.30% |
| AI & Software | +0.94% | Selling | +1.30%p | NAVER +0.71%· Kakao−0.88%· DearU+3.00% |
| Power & Electrical | +3.44% | Selling | +10.00%p | Doosan Enerbility+3.63% · LS ELECTRIC +3.73%· HD Hyundai Electric+0.26%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries+3.60%· Gaon Cable+5.96% |
| Electronics & Components | +2.70% | Selling | +19.00%p | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)+1.12%· LG Energy Solution+2.08%· Samsung SDI+4.90%· LG Electronics+2.70% |
| Autos | +1.77% | Buying | +3.10%p | Hyundai Motor+3.16%· Kia+0.44%· Hyundai Mobis+1.71% |
| Defense & Aerospace | +5.34% | Buying | +24.70%p | Hanwha Aerospace+5.01%· LIG Defense & Aerospace+11.07%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)−0.06% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | +1.79% | Buying | +13.10%p | Hanwha Ocean+5.59%· HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)+1.38% · HMM −1.61% |
| Financials | −0.36% | Selling | +0.60%p | KB Financial Group−2.33%· Shinhan Financial Group−3.27%· Hana Financial Group−3.19%· Mirae Asset Securities+7.37% |
| Bio & Healthcare | +6.31% | Buying | +9.60%p | Samsung Biologics+0.84%· Celltrion+0.85%· Alteogen+14.10%· Kolon TissueGene+9.46% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | +1.89% | Selling | +15.00%p | Hyundai E&C+0.64%· Daewoo E&C+3.78%· DL E&C+1.25% |
| Energy & Chemicals | +0.39% | — | +14.00%p | SK Innovation+3.49%· LG Chem+0.72% · S-Oil +1.45%· Lotte Chemical−4.10% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | −0.64% | Buying | +6.70%p | SK Telecom−3.63%· HYBE−0.59%· CJ CheilJedang+0.49% · JYP Ent. +1.18% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
SK hynix and Samsung Electronics together accounted for ₩850.4bn of KOSPI turnover, dominating the top-two slots
SK hynix led all KOSPI names with ₩4,721.5bn in turnover, followed by Samsung Electronics at ₩3,782.8bn — together they accounted for more than half of the top-ten combined volume. Samsung Electro-Mechanics ranked third at ₩791.5bn; Hanwha Solutions and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries also featured, reflecting continued interest in the power-and-defense complex.
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | ₩1,420,000 | −0.14% | ₩4.73tn | −₩410.3bn | +₩104.8bn | +₩130.7bn | −₩39.0bn | +₩305.3bn |
| Samsung Electronics | ₩230,000 | −0.43% | ₩3.78tn | −₩1.02tn | +₩145.2bn | +₩138.0bn | −₩3.9bn | +₩842.2bn |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,274,000 | −0.31% | ₩791.5bn | −₩156.4bn | −₩42.2bn | −₩21.4bn | −₩21.8bn | +₩192.8bn |
| SK Square | ₩949,000 | +1.06% | ₩388.0bn | +₩59.2bn | −₩42.1bn | −₩16.4bn | −₩13.2bn | −₩14.1bn |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩172,000 | +1.12% | ₩334.6bn | +₩4.4bn | +₩5.7bn | +₩6.2bn | +₩2.6bn | −₩9.3bn |
| Hanwha Aerospace | ₩1,152,000 | +5.01% | ₩274.0bn | +₩7.9bn | +₩5.6bn | −₩2.0bn | −₩5.7bn | −₩13.7bn |
| Hanwha Solutions | ₩35,250 | +3.98% | ₩271.9bn | +₩13.0bn | +₩8.4bn | +₩2.7bn | +₩1.9bn | −₩21.9bn |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries | ₩532,000 | +5.14% | ₩226.6bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samsung SDI | ₩481,500 | +4.90% | ₩198.5bn | −₩18.8bn | +₩43.9bn | +₩34.8bn | +₩4.8bn | −₩26.2bn |
| LG Electronics | ₩190,000 | +2.70% | ₩198.0bn | +₩12.1bn | +₩24.9bn | +₩15.8bn | +₩4.9bn | −₩35.0bn |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
KOSDAQ breadth skewed sharply positive — top gainer up +29.99%, while the steepest decliner fell only –2.36%
On KOSPI, the top gainer (Seoheung, +20.93%) was a specialty chemicals name, while the decliners were concentrated in financials and consumer sectors — Kumho Construction led the down list at –9.52%, followed by HD Hyundai Energy Solutions (–5.87%) and Kumho Tire (–5.63%).On KOSDAQ, the asymmetry was striking: ten names advanced between +19.43% and +29.99%, while the deepest decliner fell only –2.36%, suggesting broad breadth with very limited selling pressure on the day.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ surged +6.97% on Monday, August 10 (2026), far outpacing the KOSPI’s +0.65%
The KOSDAQ’s +6.97% advance versus the KOSPI’s +0.65% represents a 6.32-percentage-point gap — a divergence that reflects the concentration of today’s catalysts (bio, physical-AI equipment, optical fiber) in KOSDAQ-listed names rather than the large-cap KOSPI universe.Daehan Fiber Optics (+22.51%, ₩584.1bn turnover) was the KOSDAQ’s most active name by value, with Alteogen (+14.1%) and Jusung Engineering also in the top five by turnover.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Bio and defense posted sector gains above +5%, while the two largest semiconductor names closed marginally negative — a rotation-consistent pattern
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+1.92%· Up 70% · Past 30 occurrences |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
Today partially fits the rotation definition (bio and defensive sectors strongly outperforming), but the semiconductor sector index itself rose 5.89% — driven by mid-cap names rather than the two blue-chip anchors — so this does not meet the strict criterion of a large-cap semiconductor decline of –2.0% or more. It is better characterized as a broadening day than a classic defensive rotation.For reference, in the current regime (2026–, n=30), days that do qualify as rotation events have shown a 3-day average return of +1.92% with a 70% up-probability.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
Crash-precursor score stands at 2 out of a possible maximum — ADR sub-signal triggered, three others quiet
The crash-precursor composite stands at 2 today. Of the four sub-signals, only ADR is active — based on the U.S. session ADR reading of –16.7% dated July 28 (2026). Short-surge, selling-acceleration, and sentiment-90+ sub-signals are all at zero.A score of 2 reflects a single active signal; the data does not specify what threshold constitutes a meaningful warning level, so the number is reported without further interpretation. Short-sale data is current only through August 6 (2026) due to T+2 disclosure timing.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both pointed higher as of Friday’s overnight snapshot — watch for follow-through on Monday’s open
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
Friday’s SOX +2.56% was followed by today’s KOSPI +0.65% — a Korea-follows-US day in the 2026 YTD tally
The SOX index rose 2.56% on Friday, August 7 (2026), and the KOSPI followed with a +0.65% gain today — both moving in the same direction, qualifying as a Korea-follows-US session under the defined framework (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%).
In 2026 year-to-date (139 sessions), Korea has followed the US on 39 occasions, the US has followed Korea on 30, both followed each other on 46, and neither followed on 24. Today adds to the Korea-follows-US tally.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won strengthened to ₩1,417.35 per dollar, a –0.35% move on Monday, August 10 (2026)
The won strengthened to ₩1,417.35 per dollar on Monday, August 10 (2026), a –0.35% move. The dollar index (DXY) edged up 0.13% to 99.73, so won strength was not dollar-driven — it reflected domestic or regional risk-on flows.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
The U.S. 10-year yield stood at 4.66% as of Friday, August 7 (2026), the most recent available reading
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.66% as of Friday, August 7 (2026) — the most recent reading available; Monday’s U.S. markets were closed (no update).Gold was at $4,401.10 per troy ounce and copper at $6.62 per pound in the cumulative strip, both unchanged in the latest data.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
No brokerage reports were published today — Wall Street scorecard sits at 54% hit rate over 28 calls
No brokerage reports were published today — the data-collection system does not retain same-day reports after the fact, and no reports were captured at time of publication.
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
The Wall Street scorecard tracks directional calls from nine brokerages over a rolling 3-session horizon. As of today, the cumulative record stands at 15 hits in 28 calls (54% hit rate). By firm: Nomura 4/6, Goldman Sachs 3/5, Morgan Stanley 3/4, Citigroup 2/3, UBS 1/1, Bernstein 1/1, Macquarie 1/3, JP Morgan 0/3, Barclays 0/2.
Today’s event calendar items overlap with themes covered elsewhere in this edition — the SK hynix capex confirmation and government physical-AI procurement announcements are discussed in the sectors block above.
Company-level detail for Alteogen, Jusung Engineering, EcoPro, and Daehan Fiber Optics is available in the KOSDAQ top-ten and sector blocks; no additional filings or earnings releases were tracked today.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
The KOSPI call (P1: +1.0~+2.0%) captured direction but overshot on magnitude — actual was +0.65%, which falls below the predicted band; when a directional call is correct but the magnitude band is missed, it still counts as a miss on precision. The KOSDAQ call (P2: –0.3~+0.5%) missed badly in both direction and magnitude as the index surged +6.97%, a reminder that bio-driven KOSDAQ moves can overwhelm top-down sector assumptions on days with multiple catalysts.