Today’s Calls
Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexA U.S. index tracking roughly 30 companies involved in semiconductor design, distribution, and manufacturing.Its overnight move is the single most-cited external input for Korean chip-stock direction at the morning open. +2.56% Lands on Monday — Does Seoul Follow?
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.56% on Friday, August 7 (2026), while the S&P 500 added 0.62% and the Nasdaq rose 1.30% — giving Korean equities a constructive overnight backdrop as Monday’s session, August 10 (2026), approaches.At the same time, the 2026-regime day-of-week record for Mondays shows an average KOSPI move of –0.5% with a 57% up-rate across 28 sessions, and foreign net selling on 75% of those days — a structural headwind that tempers the positive U.S. close.
Today’s Calls
Where the day’s calls are placed by number — grading starts with the Early Session edition
Two calls on the board: KOSPI +1.0~+2.0%, KOSDAQ –0.3~+0.5% — scoring pending close
Two predictions were logged for today, Monday, August 10 (2026): P1 calls for KOSPI +1.0% to +2.0%, and P2 calls for KOSDAQ flat to slightly positive (–0.3% to +0.5%).These are pre-open calls made at 07:30; scoring will be applied after the close once confirmed data are available.
No prediction was entered for individual sectors or foreign net-flow direction, as the Monday-regime structural headwind and multi-signal overlap made directional conviction on sub-indices insufficient to warrant a call.
The world overnight — how the US session ended
A window on what happened in the US market overnight
SOX +2.56% leads Wall Street higher on August 7 (2026); sell-side scorecard at 54% over 28 calls
Wall Street’s sell-side scorecard stands at 54% directional accuracy over 28 calls (horizon: 3 days); individual desk records range from 0-for-3 (JP Morgan, Barclays) to 4-for-6 (Nomura), cautioning against treating any single house view as authoritative.Friday’s SOX gain of +2.56% is the primary overnight input; in the 2026 regime, the KOSPI has posted a positive follow-through session after SOX moves of that magnitude in 77% of cases (n=52, per the P1 basis recorded in the prediction log), though Monday-regime seasonality and multi-signal overlap mean several forces are pulling simultaneously.
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
Korea followed the U.S. in 39 of 139 sessions year-to-date (2026); both directions active in 46
On Friday, August 7 (2026), the SOX rose +2.56%, the Nasdaq +1.30%, and the S&P 500 +0.62%, providing a positive overnight read-across into Monday’s KOSPI open.EWY, the U.S.-listed Korea ETF, closed up +1.2% on the same day, broadly corroborating the directional signal.
In 2026 year-to-date across 139 sessions, Korea followed the U.S. (prior-night SOX ≥ 0.5% move, same-direction KOSPI) on 39 occasions; the U.S. followed Korea on 30; both moved in the same direction on 46 days; and neither followed on 24 days.The data do not establish a mechanical lock-step — on 54 of those 139 sessions, at least one market did not mirror the other.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
Night window —EWYofficial indicator
A window on what overnight futures foreshadow for the next day’s open
S&P 500 +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.30%, SOX +2.56% — Nikkei 225 edges down 0.12% (all August 7, 2026)
U.S. and Nikkei futures advanced overnight — as of 5 a.m. (Korea time) following the close of Korea markets, S&P 500 futures were +0.54%, Nasdaq 100 futures were +0.95%, and Nikkei 225 CME futures (yen-based) were +0.91%.No separate sample data is publicly available on the frequency of Kospi moving in the same direction on days following overnight closes when both U.S. and Nikkei futures ended in positive territory on a 2026 current basis, and the judgment of how Korean markets will open today is each investor’s responsibility.
Pre-open08:00~09:00 — single-price auction (open/close)The single-price auction window (before the open and just before the close), where orders are pooled and matched at once.When large volume crowds into this window, a gap is created.forecast
A window on where the pre-open auction is pulling the opening price
Opening GapThe difference between today’s opening price and the prior session’s closing price, expressed in points or percentage.Gap direction and magnitude at the 09:00 open are the immediate test of whether the overnight SOX rally has been priced into Korean equities. direction hinges on SOX +2.56% vs. Monday’s 75% foreign net-selling rate (n=28, 2026)
With the simultaneous-bid session (08:30–09:00) not yet open at publication time (07:30), the key question for the gap direction is whether the SOX +2.56% tailwind outweighs Monday’s structural foreign net-selling tendency — the data assign a 75% probability to foreign outflow on Mondays in 2026 (n=28).Sector leadership to watch: power/electric infrastructure outperformed KOSPI by +13.9%p over the past week and defense/aerospace by +24.7%p; whether semiconductor names reclaim leadership after the SOX move is a secondary read-across to monitor at the open.
Previous-Day Review
A window that retraces what happened in the previous session
Monday, August 10 (2026): SOX tailwind meets Monday-regime foreign selling headwind
The Silmari Fear Gauge
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and short selling
Crash-precursor score holds at 2 — ADR the sole active signal
The sentiment gauge reading for today is not yet available (the dashboard value reflects August 7 (2026) as the latest confirmed input).The crash-precursor composite scores 2: the ADR sub-signal is active at –16.7% (U.S. session, July 28 (2026)), while the short-surge, forced-selling-acceleration, and sentiment-above-90 sub-signals each read 0.
Historical base rates for the current regime (2026–): after a short-surge event, the KOSPI averages –1.89% over five sessions, with a 54% down-probability (n=96); in the 2025 transition regime the equivalent average was +1.35% (n=111), illustrating how regime context materially shifts the distribution.
No fresh crash-precursor trigger is active today beyond the pre-existing ADR signal; the short-surge and forced-selling signals remain at zero as of the most recent confirmed data (short-position disclosure current through August 6 (2026), flow data through August 7 (2026)). The judgment is each reader’s own.
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
Won firms to ₩1,407.33 per dollar, a –1.05% move as of August 9 (2026)
The won traded at ₩1,407.33 per dollar as of August 9 (2026), a move of –1.05% (won strengthening).The dollar index stood at 99.62 as of the same date, up 0.02%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.66% as of August 7 (2026), down 0.21% on the day — a backdrop that has historically been associated with emerging-market currency firming, though the causal path runs through multiple channels.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ net-flow data unavailable pre-open; sector relative strength the only guide
Warning
A window flagging in advance where today’s session calls for caution
Crash-precursor score 2; short-surge window for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix not yet elapsed
The crash-precursor score is 2, with only the ADR sub-signal active; in past sessions where this score was in the low single digits, the market did not systematically sell off, but the data do not establish immunity either.Samsung Electronics and SK hynix both registered short-surge events between July 23–28 (2026); in the current 2026 regime, five sessions after a short-surge event the KOSPI averaged –1.89% with a 54% down-probability (n=96) — that window is not yet fully elapsed.Monday foreign net-selling probability in 2026 stands at 75% (n=28); on days with concurrent negative foreign flow and a high-volatility backdrop, forced-selling pressure can concentrate in the 14:00–15:00 window — a pattern visible in the 2026 sample but not guaranteed to repeat.