Today’s Verdict
The index rose while retail investors sold 2 trillion won
KOSPI closed at 6,808.21, up +0.97%, and KOSDAQ at 826.87, down -0.03%. The two have split for a third day, though KOSDAQ finished close to flat.On a day the index rose, retail investors sold a net -22,461 hundred million won on KOSPI, absorbed by investment firms at +7,706 and institutions at +7,615.The overnight US session pointed up and KOSPI followed — though the semiconductor sector went the other way at -0.99%.
| Index | Close | Today | 1 week ago 08/19 | 1 month ago 07/27 | 1 quarter ago 05/27 | 6 months ago 02/25 | 1 year ago 08/26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,808.21 | +0.97% | +5.21% | +0.78% | −17.26% | +11.91% | +114.14% |
| KOSDAQ | 826.87 | −0.03% | +0.29% | +8.11% | −27.03% | −29.04% | +3.14% |
Did our calls hold?
A window grading the morning’s calls against what actually happened
Both forecasts carried on this page finished inside their bands
The two forecasts carried on this page this morning, KOSPI and KOSDAQ, both finished inside the 70%% bands placed for them.No direction was placed — the overnight signals pointed opposite ways and could not be narrowed to a single probability.
Placed as ranges, “did not fall outside” is more accurate than “was right”. A 70%% band is a range roughly seven days in ten should land inside, so landing there is not in itself an achievement.Measuring the method takes many days — one session says nothing about its accuracy.
The day’s path
A window retracing where the index travelled from open to close
Forecast record — both of today’s calls inside their bands
Who bought and who sold —4 investorgroups ×4periods
A window on how much foreign investors, retail investors, investment firms and pension funds each bought and sold
Retail sold; investment firms and institutions absorbed
| Investor group | Today | 1 week, 08.20-08.26 | 1 month, 07.27-08.26 | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign investors | −₩114.8bn | −₩6.07tn | −₩8.87tn | −₩71.12tn |
| Retail investors | −₩2.25tn | −₩1.31tn | −₩517.0bn | +₩55.26tn |
| Pension funds | −₩33.9bn | −₩141.3bn | +₩467.6bn | −₩2.13tn |
| Investment firms | +₩770.6bn | +₩488.9bn | +₩985.5bn | +₩9.30tn |
Retail investors were net sellers of -22,461 hundred million won on KOSPI.Investment firms bought +7,706 and institutions +7,615, while foreign investors stood at -1,148 and pension funds at -339.
Foreign selling of -1,148 is far smaller than yesterday’s -38,140. Today was a session in which the force lifting the index met retail selling head-on.One day of flows is not read forward into the next.
KOSDAQ investor flows again could not be filled in, as the source used in place of exchange data covers KOSPI only.When it will be filled in is stated with it: the exchange’s Confirmed FigureThe final value as settled and published by the exchange.This is the figure that goes on the record, so where it differs from a provisional one it must be restated. figures will be carried in a later edition.
Today’s close and flows are the exchange’s confirmed figures. KOSPI was revised downward from the Provisional FigureA value that has not been finalised and may change later.Just after the close the sources can disagree, so writing an unconfirmed figure as settled leaves the next edition out of step. close carried in the closing edition.Because that figure was not written as though confirmed, the two editions were not left with numbers that disagree.
Leveraged exchange-traded funds accounted for 2.596% of turnover as of yesterday, within the 2.101% to 2.845% range of the previous five sessions.A sudden jump in that share can compound a small index decline with forced selling from doubly exposed holders; today is not such a case.
Silmari Fear Gauge — past and present
A window measuring market anxiety through volatility, margin lending and Short SellingBorrowing shares to sell them first and buying them back later at a lower price.A sudden rise in the balance indicates capital gathering behind a fall in that name.
Sentiment fell sharply within the day
The composite sentiment score is 0.389, placing the stage at neutral, down from anxious in this morning’s edition.What remains elevated is 20-day realised volatility at the 89th percentile and the count of consecutive days without a trigger at 87.
That the stage moved up and back within a single day also shows how sensitive the gauge is to that day’s readings.The domestic gauge is measured after the Korean close, so it is used to explain today and not as a basis for betting on tomorrow — this year’s measurements found no next-day predictive power in it.
| Measure | Today’s value | Basis | Where today sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail buying intensity on down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 70(top 30%) |
| KOSPI 20-day realised volatility | 5.27 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 89(top 11%) |
| Consecutive no-trigger down days | 0.0 | Current regime (2026) percentile | 87(top 13%) |
The crash-precursor score is 3, graded crash watch, up a step from 2 (caution) yesterday.What lifted it is the short-selling surge item at 1 point, alongside the US-listed SK hynix American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A certificate issued by a US bank allowing shares of a non-US company to trade on a US market.It shows where the same company traded in the United States before the Korean market opens. holding 2 points.
The depositary receipt reading is from the US session of 28 July and is not a figure from today. The short-selling balance is dated 21 August and is disclosed two days later by the exchange.Carrying the grade alone would read as a signal switched on today — the dates are read with it.
Selling acceleration and the elevated-sentiment item both score 0 today.Two of the four items are stale readings and two are zero — that is how the grade should be read.
The judgement is yours.
Short sellingSelling borrowed shares first, betting the price will fall.A rising balance means more money is betting on a decline.balance — the pattern of surges
A window on the stocks whose short balance rose or fell, and what happened afterwards
The short-selling surge item switched back on today
Among the four crash-precursor items, the short-selling surge registered 1 point today, against 0 yesterday.Exchange short-selling balances are disclosed two days later, so the figure behind this edition is dated 21 August.
Where the money moved —12sectors
A window on where money moved from and to, by sector
Construction and infrastructure +6.72%, autos -4.17%
| Sector | Today | Flows | Relative (1w) | Leaders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | −0.99% | Buying | — | Samsung Electronics+1.75%· SK hynix+0.60%· Samsung Electro-Mechanics−2.35%· SK Square−0.19%· Jusung Engineering−3.02% |
| AI & Software | +0.45% | Buying | — | NAVER −0.23%· Kakao+0.83%· DearU+0.76% |
| Power & Electrical | +3.54% | Buying | — | Doosan Enerbility+6.32% · LS ELECTRIC +3.12%· HD Hyundai Electric+1.95%· HYOSUNG Heavy Industries+1.52%· Gaon Cable+4.77% |
| Electronics & Components | +0.26% | Selling | — | Samsung Electronics (Pref.)+1.18%· LG Electronics+0.00%· Samsung SDI−0.58%· LG Energy Solution+0.43% |
| Autos | −4.17% | Selling | — | Hyundai Motor−3.09%· Hyundai Mobis−6.83%· Kia−2.59% |
| Defense & Aerospace | −0.52% | Buying | — | Hanwha Aerospace−1.36%· LIG Defense & Aerospace−1.11%· Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)+0.92% |
| Shipbuilding & Shipping | −1.83% | Buying | — | HMM −5.74%· Hanwha Ocean+0.81%· HD KSOE (Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering)−0.55% |
| Financials | +1.05% | Buying | — | KB Financial Group+0.12%· Shinhan Financial Group+0.85%· Hana Financial Group+1.83%· Mirae Asset Securities+1.40% |
| Bio & Healthcare | +0.06% | Buying | — | Alteogen+1.96%· Samsung Biologics+0.88%· Celltrion+2.00%· Kolon TissueGene−4.61% |
| Construction & Infrastructure | +6.72% | Selling | — | Daewoo E&C+8.40%· Hyundai E&C+7.50%· DL E&C+4.27% |
| Energy & Chemicals | −1.56% | — | — | SK Innovation−11.04% · S-Oil +0.79%· LG Chem+0.19%· Lotte Chemical+3.83% |
| Consumer & Entertainment | +1.91% | Selling | — | SK Telecom+0.71%· HYBE+4.01% · JYP Ent. +1.78%· CJ CheilJedang+1.12% |
The stocks that moved the market — top by turnover10
A window on which investor groups backed the most heavily traded stocks
10 trillion won concentrated in two chipmakers
Samsung Electronics led KOSPI turnover at 51,099 hundred million won, with SK hynix second at 49,766.Samsung Electronics travelled from a low of -0.58% to a high of +3.7% before closing +1.75%; SK hynix gave back much of a +3.4% high to finish +0.60%.Doosan Enerbility was the largest riser near the top of KOSPI at +6.32%, while Samsung Electro-Mechanics fell -2.35%.
| Stock | Close | Change | Turnover | Foreign investors | Institutions | Investment firms | Pension funds | Retail investors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics | ₩261,500 (≈$188.93) | +1.75% | ₩5.11tn | +₩671.3bn | +₩132.6bn | +₩184.2bn | −₩35.8bn | −₩1.28tn |
| SK hynix | ₩1,688,000 (≈$1,219.57) | +0.60% | ₩4.98tn | −₩382.1bn | +₩6.7bn | +₩16.6bn | −₩9.5bn | −₩710.2bn |
| Samsung Electronics (Pref.) | ₩196,800 (≈$142.19) | +1.18% | ₩670.4bn | −₩22.0bn | +₩34.9bn | +₩10.7bn | −₩0.8bn | −₩22.2bn |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | ₩1,330,000 (≈$960.91) | −2.35% | ₩651.6bn | +₩11.7bn | −₩36.7bn | +₩5.0bn | −₩20.7bn | +₩26.2bn |
| Doosan Enerbility | ₩85,800 (≈$61.99) | +6.32% | ₩544.2bn | +₩6.7bn | +₩96.1bn | +₩38.3bn | +₩30.7bn | −₩105.5bn |
| SK Square | ₩1,058,000 (≈$764.40) | −0.19% | ₩509.1bn | +₩19.4bn | −₩18.8bn | +₩0.9bn | −₩11.2bn | −₩4.2bn |
| SK Innovation | ₩111,200 (≈$80.34) | −11.04% | ₩456.7bn | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hyundai Motor | ₩408,000 (≈$294.78) | −3.09% | ₩395.9bn | −₩101.7bn | −₩42.5bn | −₩13.4bn | −₩13.0bn | +₩143.9bn |
| Daewoo E&C | ₩19,100 (≈$13.80) | +8.40% | ₩384.7bn | −₩27.9bn | +₩22.1bn | +₩6.0bn | +₩10.2bn | +₩3.5bn |
| Hanmi Pharmaceutical | ₩530,000 (≈$382.92) | +5.79% | ₩300.2bn | — | — | — | — | — |
Gainers5· Decliners5 — KOSPI & KOSDAQ
A window on the biggest gainers and decliners, and the reasons behind them
One name reached 26% intraday and closed in the 4% range
On KOSDAQ, Ingenia Therapeutics reached a high of +26.21% today and closed +4.71%, after a low of -1.57%.Alteogen closed +1.96%, Daehan Telecom +0.00%, Jusung Engineering -3.02%, Simmtech -3.59% and HPSP +0.00%.Why these names moved could not be confirmed in today’s data; each is still marked as having no identified driver, and no cause is attached here.
The SilmariDecouplingWhen two markets that used to move together break apart and move separately.The wider the gap, the less any single index can tell you about the market.Gauge
A window on the pattern in the KOSPI–KOSDAQ decoupling
KOSDAQ came back to where it started three days ago
KOSDAQ closed at 826.87, down -0.03% — flat after two days of gains.KOSDAQ investor flows again could not be filled in, as the substitute source covers KOSPI only; the exchange’s confirmed figures will be carried once available.
Semiconductors → defensives, and back — by regime
A window on the pattern in sector rotation — money circulating from one sector to another
Money moved out of semiconductors
| Regime | Reversion rate · sample |
|---|---|
| ① Old order (2018–24) | Average−0.84%· rose 45% of the time · 69 past cases |
| ② Transition (2025) | Average+1.70%· rose 71% of the time · 17 past cases |
| ③ Current regime (2026–) | Average+2.17%· rose 70% of the time · 33 past occurrences |
A day when semiconductors (the average of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics) fall 2.0% or more while defensives (bio, food & beverage) outperform by 2.0%p or more = rotation (a flight)
The sectors that rose today were led by construction and infrastructure at +6.72%, with power and electrical +3.54%, consumer and entertainment +1.91% and financials +1.05%.That these four rose on a day semiconductors fell -0.99% is the notable point on today’s page.One day of moves is not read as a rotation, however — it takes several sessions before it can be called a flow.
The night makes the morning —American Depositary Receipt (ADR)A twin of a Korean stock, listed on a U.S. exchange.It prints overnight, showing how U.S. investors price Korean stocks before Seoul opens.crash detection
A window on how U.S.-listed Korean stocks moved overnight
Market breadth could not be filled in today
The advance-decline measure was not collected today, as the exchange’s daily open, high, low and close data did not arrive.The most recent readings are 2.02 for KOSPI and 1.3 for KOSDAQ, dated 24 August. They will be carried retroactively once available.
Tonight — the U.S. session about to open
The US session ahead — futures sit close to flat
Korea–U.S. mutual following — overnight grading
A window on which market followed which
The overnight US pointed up and KOSPI followed
Overnight the US rose together: the SOX semiconductor index +1.44%, the Nasdaq +0.66%, the S&P 500 +0.32% and the Dow +0.3%.iShares MSCI South Korea ETFAn exchange-traded fund listed in the United States that holds Korean equities.It trades while the Korean market is closed, giving an early read on how foreign investors price Korea., the US-listed Korea ETF that previews the foreign view, also rose sharply at +3.75%.KOSPI followed that direction today at +0.97%. Yesterday the outside pointed down and Korea did not follow, so the two days ran opposite.
On the year, Korea followed the US on 39 days, the US followed Korea on 30, both moved together on 46 and neither followed on 24, out of 139.With followed and unfollowed days mixed this way, a single overnight move is not read forward into a narrower call.
Overnight SOX ↔ same-day KOSPI in the same direction (|SOX| ≥ 0.5%) = Korea following · same-day KOSPI ↔ that night’s SOX in the same direction (|KOSPI| ≥ 0.5%) = the U.S. following
The won — the signal is the speed of the move, not its direction
A window on the pressure the won-dollar rate puts on foreign flows
The won rate is again absent today
The won-dollar and yen-won rates were not collected today for want of sample. That does not mean the values do not exist, only that they have not reached us; they will be carried once filled in.What can be shown is the dollar index, at 99.008, a move of +0.09% — too small to call a direction.
Rates — a weaker link than commonly assumed
A window on the burden rates and bonds place on equities
Copper rose more than 1.5%
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.639%, a move of -1.38% on overnight figures.Copper rose +1.54% to 6.8125 dollars and gold +0.85% to 4,677.5 dollars — the physical-demand gauge moved more than the safe haven.
Reference — brokerages, Wall Street and the windows
A window collecting brokerage research and overseas news
There have been thirty-two Wednesdays this year
There have been 32 Wednesdays in 2026, on which KOSPI averaged +0.92% and rose on 78% of them, with an average daily swing of 4.07%.Today’s +0.97% matches that average in direction but is less than half its size — a single average cannot describe today.
15 of 28 calls correct (54%) — measured three trading days after publication.
Overnight world futures were narrow across the board: S&P 500 futures +0.01%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.08% and Nikkei (CME) futures +0.11%.These are three CME-linked contracts standing in for Korean night futures, which is stated here rather than implied.
In Japan the Nikkei 225 closed at 66,262.16, up +0.62%.The direction matches Korea’s and so does roughly the size.
The cumulative record for brokerage calls stands at 14 of 26 (54%).Retroactive entries are dated by the report’s news coverage and only items whose headlines carry a target-price marker and a stated stance were included — a collection bias is possible, and that is stated here.
Closing today, on to tomorrow
A window that closes today and hands over to tomorrow
One thing today taught: a figure that is not yet confirmed must be written as not yet confirmed.The closing edition carried the KOSPI close as provisional and said the sources disagreed. When the confirmed figure arrived, it had changed. Without that note the two editions would have been left with numbers that disagree.Flows arrived confirmed today. Marking, edition by edition, which values are settled and which are not is how the standard is kept.